luckadjusted

Week 2 2020 · September 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Cowboys, Week 2 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Falcons 40–39, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 48 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): G. Zuerlein made 46-yard field goal, worth 46 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 39
Dallas Cowboys 40

September 20, 2020 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3

Luck index +44 Cowboys lucky · −44 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 4, Cowboys win 6.

  1. 1 ATL 31 DAL 9
  2. 2 ATL 44 DAL 31
  3. 3 ATL 47 DAL 41
  4. 4 ATL 30 DAL 28
  5. 5 ATL 45 DAL 48
  6. 6 ATL 41 DAL 47
  7. 7 ATL 27 DAL 38
  8. 8 ATL 17 DAL 33
  9. 9 ATL 21 DAL 41
  10. 10 ATL 13 DAL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 44% of them, Cowboys 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+9.6%
Falcons by 9–1611.6%
Falcons by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation2.7%
Cowboys by 1–823.2%
Cowboys by 9–1614.7%
Cowboys by 17+17.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.3 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Cowboys by 1, without the luck Cowboys by 11.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • Y. Koo, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • Y. Koo, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • Y. Koo, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 46 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 8 for 51 yards, Cowboys 7 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:54 Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Takkarist McKinley), 15 yards +5% DAL +2.1 pts
Q1 7:37 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 12 yards +2% ATL +1.2 pts
Q1 4:26 Face Mask on the Falcons (Olamide Zaccheaus), 15 yards +1% DAL +1.3 pts
Q1 3:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 13 yards +3% ATL +1.9 pts
Q1 0:47 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 5 yards +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 9:27 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 15 yards +2% ATL +1.5 pts
Q2 2:43 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +2% ATL +1.7 pts
Q2 2:29 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.4 pts
Q2 1:20 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.3 pts
Q2 0:29 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Aldon Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.4 pts
Q3 7:08 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q3 4:39 Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Deion Jones), 1 yard +1% DAL +0.7 pts
Q4 8:02 False Start on the Falcons (Tyeler Davison), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.1 pts
Q4 2:29 Illegal Blindside Block on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 15 yards +3% ATL +1.2 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Isaiah Oliver), 0 yards 0% DAL +0.3 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:13 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% ATL DAL: Turnover
2 Q1 10:24 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DAL DAL: Turnover
3 Q1 9:34 The Cowboys fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% ATL DAL: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 4:17 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q3 2:59 The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q3 0:51 The Falcons converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:49 Onside kick recovered by the CowboysSpecial teams +32% DAL DAL: Field goal
8 Q4 0:04 G. Zuerlein made 46-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 9 of 14 from 45+ before +46% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • La'el Collins (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sean Lee (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kendall Sheffield (ATL CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 10% · Cowboys 90%

Final margin
Cowboys by 1
Luck in points
10.3 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 11.3
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 44% · Cowboys 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2020 games · Falcons · Cowboys

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