luckadjusted

Week 2 2020 · September 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Cardinals, Week 2 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat Washington 30–15 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 71% favorites.

Final

Washington Football Team 15
Arizona Cardinals 30

September 20, 2020 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −7.5

Luck index +24 Cardinals about even · −24 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 2, Cardinals win 8.

  1. 1 WAS 27 ARI 13
  2. 2 WAS 13 ARI 10
  3. 3 WAS 24 ARI 26
  4. 4 WAS 19 ARI 23
  5. 5 WAS 6 ARI 13
  6. 6 WAS 13 ARI 23
  7. 7 WAS 16 ARI 29
  8. 8 WAS 3 ARI 20
  9. 9 WAS 6 ARI 27
  10. 10 WAS 9 ARI 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 24% of them, Cardinals 76%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+2.6%
Washington by 9–167.1%
Washington by 1–812.3%
Level after regulation2.6%
Cardinals by 1–825.0%
Cardinals by 9–1619.8%
Cardinals by 17+30.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 15, without the luck Cardinals by 13.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 6 for 42 yards, Cardinals 11 for 97 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on Washington (Cam Sims), 7 yards +1% ARI +0.7 pts
Q1 13:43 Offensive Holding on Washington (Khaleke Hudson), 10 yards 0% ARI +0.9 pts
Q1 11:33 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals, 10 yards +4% WAS +1.8 pts
Q1 10:17 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Dan Arnold), 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q1 10:09 Defensive Holding on Washington (Landon Collins), 5 yards +1% ARI +0.7 pts
Q2 12:16 Chop Block on the Cardinals (Darrell Daniels), 15 yards +1% WAS +1.4 pts
Q2 3:19 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 0:45 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.3 pts
Q3 9:12 Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 13 yards 0% WAS +1.1 pts
Q3 8:59 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 4:24 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards +1% ARI +1.6 pts
Q3 0:33 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Daron Payne), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 14:44 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (J.R. Sweezy), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% WAS +1.6 pts
Q4 12:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 13 yards 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 7:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Dre Kirkpatrick), 6 yards 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 7:29 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +1.0 pts
Q4 4:04 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.7 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:48 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +3% ARI WAS: Punt
2 Q1 12:39 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +4% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q1 11:33 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% WAS WAS: Punt
4 Q1 10:47 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +2% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q1 9:14 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q1 5:39 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% WAS ARI: Punt
7 Q1 4:22 Washington fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ARI WAS: Punt
8 Q1 3:00 Washington fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% ARI WAS: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Thompson (ARI FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 1% · Cardinals 99%

Final margin
Cardinals by 15
Luck in points
1.3 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 13.7
Replay with same day's form
Washington 24% · Cardinals 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2020 games · Washington · Cardinals

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