2019 season · final

Cleveland Browns, 2019: game by game

The Browns went 6–10 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck cost them 0.6: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–4.

Every game

How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Titans	L 13–43	13%	−13
Week 2	@ Jets	W 23–3	98%	+2
Week 3	vs Rams	L 13–20	17%	−17
Week 4	@ Ravens	W 40–25	28%	+72
Week 5	@ 49ers	L 3–31	4%	−4
Week 6	vs Seahawks	L 28–32	42%	−42
Week 8	@ Patriots	L 13–27	28%	−28
Week 9	@ Broncos	L 19–24	35%	−35
Week 10	vs Bills	W 19–16	78%	+22
Week 11	vs Steelers	W 21–7	56%	+44
Week 12	vs Dolphins	W 41–24	94%	+6
Week 13	@ Steelers	L 13–20	23%	−23
Week 14	vs Bengals	W 27–19	63%	+37
Week 15	@ Cardinals	L 24–38	14%	−14
Week 16	vs Ravens	L 15–31	12%	−12
Week 17	@ Bengals	L 23–33	51%	−51

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −13 vs TEN

Wk 2 +2 @ NYJ

Wk 3 −17 vs LA

Wk 4 +72 @ BAL

Wk 5 −4 @ SF

Wk 6 −42 vs SEA

Wk 8 −28 @ NE

Wk 9 −35 @ DEN

Wk 10 +22 vs BUF

Wk 11 +44 vs PIT

Wk 12 +6 vs MIA

Wk 13 −23 @ PIT

Wk 14 +37 vs CIN

Wk 15 −14 @ ARI

Wk 16 −12 vs BAL

Wk 17 −51 @ CIN

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Browns’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.55	+12.3
Judgment calls	+0.04	−8.9
Rest	−0.03	−1.0
Fumble bounces	−0.09	−6.3
3rd & 4th downs	−0.12	−0.1
Injuries	−0.24	−8.9