luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Browns, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Bills 19–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:29 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 10, worth 22 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 16
Cleveland Browns 19

November 10, 2019 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −3

Luck index +22 Browns about even · −22 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 2, Browns win 8.

  1. 1 BUF 28 CLE 17
  2. 2 BUF 21 CLE 17
  3. 3 BUF 24 CLE 27
  4. 4 BUF 17 CLE 23
  5. 5 BUF 14 CLE 22
  6. 6 BUF 16 CLE 27
  7. 7 BUF 13 CLE 27
  8. 8 BUF 23 CLE 41
  9. 9 BUF 17 CLE 39
  10. 10 BUF 6 CLE 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 22% of them, Browns 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+2.8%
Bills by 9–166.1%
Bills by 1–812.3%
Level after regulation2.4%
Browns by 1–824.4%
Browns by 9–1620.1%
Browns by 17+31.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.6 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 3, without the luck Bills by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 34 yds missed · 93% expected
  • A. Seibert, 47 yds made · 76% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 53 yds missed · 62% expected
  • Extra point missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 7 for 40 yards, Browns 4 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:13 Taunting on the Browns (Jarvis Landry), 15 yards +3% BUF +1.4 pts
Q1 12:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 35 yards +6% BUF +2.2 pts
Q1 6:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Jordan Poyer), 0 yards 0% CLE 0.0 pts
Q1 4:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 0 yards +2% CLE +0.6 pts
Q2 3:38 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.1 pts
Q2 1:15 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +6% CLE +1.3 pts
Q3 10:49 False Start on the Bills (Lee Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.4 pts
Q3 10:47 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +4% CLE +1.3 pts
Q3 8:14 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Trent Murphy), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q3 2:20 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Larry Ogunjobi), 15 yards +8% BUF +1.4 pts
Q4 8:31 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Lee Smith), 10 yards +11% CLE +1.1 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:20 S. Hauschka missed 34-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +16% CLE BUF: Punt
2 Q3 5:25 The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +12% CLE CLE: Field goal
3 Q4 10:09 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +11% BUF CLE: Punt
4 Q4 8:31 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Lee Smith), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 249 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +11% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:29 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:34 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +16% BUF BUF: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:26 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +11% CLE BUF: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:22 S. Hauschka missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ before +19% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Olivier Vernon (CLE DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Antonio Callaway (CLE WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Murray (CLE FS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Duke Williams (BUF WR), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 77% · Browns 23%

Final margin
Browns by 3
Luck in points
5.6 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Bills 22% · Browns 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Bills · Browns

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