luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Buccaneers, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Cardinals 30–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Buccaneers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:25 left): Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 30 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

November 10, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −5.5

Luck index +45 Buccaneers lucky · −45 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 5, Buccaneers win 5.

  1. 1 ARI 34 TB 13
  2. 2 ARI 30 TB 16
  3. 3 ARI 30 TB 20
  4. 4 ARI 30 TB 24
  5. 5 ARI 48 TB 46
  6. 6 ARI 24 TB 26
  7. 7 ARI 21 TB 27
  8. 8 ARI 16 TB 26
  9. 9 ARI 9 TB 24
  10. 10 ARI 16 TB 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 45% of them, Buccaneers 55%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+11.5%
Cardinals by 9–1613.8%
Cardinals by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation5.2%
Buccaneers by 1–820.2%
Buccaneers by 9–1615.7%
Buccaneers by 17+14.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.8 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 3, without the luck Cardinals by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 54 yds made · 63% expected
  • M. Gay, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Gay, 45 yds made · 80% expected
  • M. Gay, 41 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 11 for 87 yards, Buccaneers 9 for 94 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:37 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% ARI +1.7 pts
Q1 7:35 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% TB +2.5 pts
Q1 6:03 Illegal Formation on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +1.1 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 10:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Chandler Jones), 13 yards +5% TB +1.2 pts
Q2 9:49 Intentional Grounding on the Buccaneers (Jameis Winston), 10 yards +2% ARI +0.7 pts
Q2 4:26 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Darrell Daniels), 4 yards +1% TB +0.3 pts
Q2 0:08 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trent Sherfield), 7 yards +3% TB +0.6 pts
Q3 14:56 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.7 pts
Q3 6:15 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Breshad Perriman), 10 yards +3% ARI +1.0 pts
Q3 2:43 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (O.J. Howard), 6 yards +3% ARI +0.5 pts
Q4 14:55 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 12:16 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 9:53 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TB +0.4 pts
Q4 8:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (M.J. Stewart), 25 yards +7% ARI +1.7 pts
Q4 2:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 16 yards +7% TB +1.1 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 12 yards +12% TB +2.0 pts
Q4 0:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Vernon Hargreaves III), 18 yards +13% ARI +1.2 pts
Q4 0:25 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +30% TB +1.4 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:47 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% ARI TB: Touchdown
2 Q3 13:14 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +12% TB ARI: Touchdown
3 Q4 8:39 The Cardinals converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +21% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 12 yardsJudgment calls +12% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:47 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +11% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:13 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +12% TB ARI: End of game
7 Q4 0:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Vernon Hargreaves III), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 621 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +12% ARI ARI: End of game
8 Q4 0:25 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +30% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Carl Nassib (TB DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Justin Murray (ARI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Damiere Byrd (ARI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tramaine Brock (ARI CB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 67% · Buccaneers 33%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
6.8 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 45% · Buccaneers 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Cardinals · Buccaneers

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