luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · November 7, 2019–November 11

Week 10 2019: who deserved to win

8 of 13 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Dolphins beat the Colts 16–12 in a game they win 8% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 10 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 8 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Falcons 26–9 @ Saints 15% 47% Coin flip
Dolphins 16–12 @ Colts 21% 8% Lucky
Seahawks 27–24 @ 49ers 32% 44% Coin flip
Titans 35–32 vs Chiefs 36% 36% Lucky
Steelers 17–12 vs Rams 38% 22% Lucky
Vikings 28–24 @ Cowboys 40% 44% Coin flip
Jets 34–27 vs Giants 41% 77% Deserved
Raiders 26–24 vs Chargers 47% 41% Coin flip

Week 10 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Dolphins W 16–12 @ Colts 8% +92
2 Bears W 20–13 vs Lions 14% +86
3 Steelers W 17–12 vs Rams 22% +78
4 Titans W 35–32 vs Chiefs 36% +64
5 Raiders W 26–24 vs Chargers 41% +59
6 Vikings W 28–24 @ Cowboys 44% +56
7 Seahawks W 27–24 @ 49ers 44% +56
8 Falcons W 26–9 @ Saints 47% +53
9 Buccaneers W 30–27 vs Cardinals 55% +45
10 Jets W 34–27 vs Giants 77% +23
11 Browns W 19–16 vs Bills 78% +22
12 Packers W 24–16 vs Panthers 87% +13
13 Ravens W 49–13 @ Bengals 100% 0
14 Bengals L 13–49 vs Ravens 0% 0
15 Panthers L 16–24 @ Packers 13% −13
16 Bills L 16–19 @ Browns 22% −22
17 Giants L 27–34 @ Jets 23% −23
18 Cardinals L 27–30 @ Buccaneers 45% −45
19 Saints L 9–26 vs Falcons 53% −53
20 49ers L 24–27 vs Seahawks 56% −56
21 Cowboys L 24–28 vs Vikings 56% −56
22 Chargers L 24–26 @ Raiders 59% −59
23 Chiefs L 32–35 @ Titans 64% −64
24 Rams L 12–17 @ Steelers 78% −78
25 Lions L 13–20 @ Bears 86% −86
26 Colts L 12–16 vs Dolphins 92% −92