luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · November 14, 2019–November 18

Week 11 2019: who deserved to win

1 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Chiefs beat the Chargers 24–17 in a game they win 36% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 11 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Falcons 29–3 @ Panthers 40% 76% Deserved
Jets 34–17 @ Washington 47% 87% Deserved

Week 11 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Chiefs W 24–17 @ Chargers 36% +64
2 Patriots W 17–10 @ Eagles 50% +50
3 Browns W 21–7 vs Steelers 56% +44
4 Saints W 34–17 @ Buccaneers 61% +39
5 Vikings W 27–23 vs Broncos 63% +37
6 Falcons W 29–3 @ Panthers 76% +24
7 Rams W 17–7 vs Bears 80% +20
8 Jets W 34–17 @ Washington 87% +13
9 Colts W 33–13 vs Jaguars 92% +8
10 49ers W 36–26 vs Cardinals 92% +8
11 Cowboys W 35–27 @ Lions 93% +7
12 Raiders W 17–10 vs Bengals 94% +6
13 Bills W 37–20 @ Dolphins 96% +4
14 Ravens W 41–7 vs Texans 96% +4
15 Dolphins L 20–37 vs Bills 4% −4
16 Texans L 7–41 @ Ravens 4% −4
17 Bengals L 10–17 @ Raiders 6% −6
18 Lions L 27–35 vs Cowboys 7% −7
19 Cardinals L 26–36 @ 49ers 8% −8
20 Jaguars L 13–33 @ Colts 8% −8
21 Washington L 17–34 vs Jets 13% −13
22 Bears L 7–17 @ Rams 20% −20
23 Panthers L 3–29 vs Falcons 24% −24
24 Broncos L 23–27 @ Vikings 37% −37
25 Buccaneers L 17–34 vs Saints 39% −39
26 Steelers L 7–21 @ Browns 44% −44
27 Eagles L 10–17 vs Patriots 50% −50
28 Chargers L 17–24 vs Chiefs 64% −64