luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · November 21, 2019–November 25

Week 12 2019: who deserved to win

2 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: Washington beat the Lions 19–16 in a game they win 13% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 12 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Washington 19–16 vs Lions 38% 13% Lucky
Jets 34–3 vs Raiders 40% 75% Deserved
Buccaneers 35–22 @ Falcons 40% 96% Deserved

Week 12 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Washington W 19–16 vs Lions 13% +87
2 Patriots W 13–9 vs Cowboys 14% +86
3 Seahawks W 17–9 @ Eagles 53% +47
4 Texans W 20–17 vs Colts 54% +46
5 Bears W 19–14 vs Giants 61% +39
6 Jets W 34–3 vs Raiders 75% +25
7 Saints W 34–31 vs Panthers 85% +15
8 Titans W 42–20 vs Jaguars 92% +8
9 49ers W 37–8 vs Packers 93% +7
10 Browns W 41–24 vs Dolphins 94% +6
11 Steelers W 16–10 @ Bengals 95% +5
12 Bills W 20–3 vs Broncos 96% +4
13 Buccaneers W 35–22 @ Falcons 96% +4
14 Ravens W 45–6 @ Rams 97% +3
15 Rams L 6–45 vs Ravens 3% −3
16 Falcons L 22–35 vs Buccaneers 4% −4
17 Broncos L 3–20 @ Bills 4% −4
18 Bengals L 10–16 vs Steelers 5% −5
19 Dolphins L 24–41 @ Browns 6% −6
20 Packers L 8–37 @ 49ers 7% −7
21 Jaguars L 20–42 @ Titans 8% −8
22 Panthers L 31–34 @ Saints 15% −15
23 Raiders L 3–34 @ Jets 25% −25
24 Giants L 14–19 @ Bears 39% −39
25 Colts L 17–20 @ Texans 46% −46
26 Eagles L 9–17 vs Seahawks 47% −47
27 Cowboys L 9–13 @ Patriots 86% −86
28 Lions L 16–19 @ Washington 87% −87