luckadjusted

2019 season · final

Cincinnati Bengals, 2019: game by game

The Bengals went 2–14 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.4 wins. Luck cost them 2.4: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–8.

Every game

How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Seahawks L 20–21 62% −62
Week 2 vs 49ers L 17–41 1% −1
Week 3 @ Bills L 17–21 28% −28
Week 4 @ Steelers L 3–27 22% −22
Week 5 vs Cardinals L 23–26 25% −25
Week 6 @ Ravens L 17–23 10% −10
Week 7 vs Jaguars L 17–27 21% −21
Week 8 @ Rams L 10–24 9% −9
Week 10 vs Ravens L 13–49 0% 0
Week 11 @ Raiders L 10–17 6% −6
Week 12 vs Steelers L 10–16 5% −5
Week 13 vs Jets W 22–6 80% +20
Week 14 @ Browns L 19–27 37% −37
Week 15 vs Patriots L 13–34 62% −62
Week 16 @ Dolphins L 35–38 22% −22
Week 17 vs Browns W 33–23 49% +51

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.07+22.4
Injuries−0.04−2.3
Fumble bounces−0.36−9.4
Kicks−0.51+1.1
3rd & 4th downs−0.52−7.8