Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
49ers at Bengals, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Bengals 41–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10.
An off day for the Bengals: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:01 left): Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 San Francisco 49ers | 41 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 49ers about even · −1 Bengals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 10, Bengals win 0.
- 1 SF 47 CIN 3
- 2 SF 42 CIN 7
- 3 SF 40 CIN 10
- 4 SF 43 CIN 17
- 5 SF 45 CIN 23
- 6 SF 44 CIN 24
- 7 SF 23 CIN 7
- 8 SF 35 CIN 23
- 9 SF 34 CIN 27
- 10 SF 23 CIN 20
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bengals
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.64 | +0.09 | better by 0.55 |
| 49ers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.09 | better by 0.11 |
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.09 | worse by 0.11 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.64 | +0.16 | worse by 0.48 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 99% of them, Bengals 1%. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 80.7% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 13.3% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 4.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Bullock, 52 yds missed · 67% expected
- R. Bullock, 37 yds made · 91% expected
- R. Gould, 33 yds made · 94% expected
- R. Gould, 38 yds made · 90% expected
- R. Gould, 39 yds missed · 89% expected
Penalties: 49ers 9 for 75 yards, Bengals 7 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards | +1% SF +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:59 | Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Solomon Thomas), 15 yards | +4% CIN +1.6 pts |
| Q1 0:56 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% SF +2.1 pts |
| Q1 0:01 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SF +0.7 pts |
| Q2 14:19 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 14:15 | False Start on the 49ers (Jimmy Garoppolo), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 14:04 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% SF +2.1 pts |
| Q2 13:01 | Illegal Forward Pass on the Bengals (Andy Dalton), 5 yards | +1% SF +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:04 | Defensive Delay of Game on the 49ers (Ahkello Witherspoon), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:01 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% CIN +5.5 pts |
| Q2 1:25 | Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:24 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards | 0% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:18 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards | 0% CIN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:56 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bengals (Jordan Evans), 10 yards | 0% SF +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:10 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% SF +5.0 pts |
| Q4 3:17 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Kyle Juszczyk), 10 yards | 0% CIN +0.8 pts |
49ers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:17 | The Bengals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:50 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +9% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 0:56 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% SF | SF: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 14:04 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 13:01 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedIllegal Forward Pass on the Bengals (Andy Dalton), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 75 snaps before, position avg 1 per 751 | +7% SF | CIN: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 11:26 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +6% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 8:11 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 5:01 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% CIN | CIN: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cordy Glenn (CIN T), out · 0.9 pts
- Jimmie Ward (SF CB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 100% · Bengals 0%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 24
- Luck in points
- 1.2 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 25.2
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 99% · Bengals 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · 
49ers · 
Bengals
More from Week 2 2019
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 20–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Cardinals at Ravens BAL 23–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bills at Giants BUF 28–14 · replay 55% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 31–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Colts at Titans IND 19–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Chargers at Lions DET 13–10 · replay 28% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 21–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins NE 43–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Seahawks at Steelers SEA 28–26 · replay 55% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 28–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Broncos CHI 16–14 · replay 10% for the winner
- Saints at Rams LA 27–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- Eagles at Falcons ATL 24–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Browns at Jets CLE 23–3 · replay 98% for the winner