luckadjusted

Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chiefs at Raiders, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 28–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:57 left): the Chiefs converted 3rd & 20, worth 18 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 28
Oakland Raiders 10

September 15, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum · Closing line: Chiefs −7

Luck index +13 Chiefs about even · −13 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 9, Raiders win 1.

  1. 1 KC 40 OAK 7
  2. 2 KC 40 OAK 16
  3. 3 KC 31 OAK 12
  4. 4 KC 38 OAK 23
  5. 5 KC 30 OAK 17
  6. 6 KC 31 OAK 21
  7. 7 KC 42 OAK 34
  8. 8 KC 20 OAK 15
  9. 9 KC 23 OAK 21
  10. 10 KC 26 OAK 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 87% of them, Raiders 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+44.4%
Chiefs by 9–1622.3%
Chiefs by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation1.3%
Raiders by 1–88.3%
Raiders by 9–163.1%
Raiders by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +20.5 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Chiefs by 18, without the luck Chiefs by 38.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Chiefs 10 for 114 yards, Raiders 7 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:46 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards +1% OAK +0.3 pts
Q1 9:02 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Lamarcus Joyner), 5 yards 0% KC +0.3 pts
Q1 5:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Tyrann Mathieu), 43 yards +7% OAK +2.2 pts
Q1 1:05 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 15 yards +2% KC +1.1 pts
Q2 13:08 False Start on the Raiders (Hunter Renfrow), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.6 pts
Q2 12:36 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 5 yards +2% OAK +0.5 pts
Q2 11:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +1.1 pts
Q2 6:31 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% OAK +3.4 pts
Q2 4:14 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.3 pts
Q2 3:44 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs (Dorian O'Daniel), 6 yards +2% OAK +0.5 pts
Q2 1:56 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs, 10 yards +4% OAK +2.3 pts
Q3 12:15 Illegal Shift on the Chiefs (De'Anthony Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OAK +0.5 pts
Q3 5:51 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (LeSean McCoy), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% OAK +8.6 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Lamarcus Joyner), 12 yards 0% KC +1.4 pts
Q4 12:50 False Start on the Raiders (Ryan Grant), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.7 pts
Q4 6:38 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Jordan Lucas), 10 yards 0% OAK +0.9 pts
Q4 4:21 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Byron Pringle), 10 yards 0% OAK +0.9 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:28 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% OAK OAK: Field goal
2 Q1 11:06 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +5% KC OAK: Field goal
3 Q1 5:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Tyrann Mathieu), 43 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 57 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +7% OAK OAK: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:50 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% OAK OAK: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:31 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:29 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:31 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% OAK OAK: Punt
8 Q2 5:57 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +18% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Gabe Jackson (OAK G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tyreek Hill (KC WR), out · 1.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 100% · Raiders 0%

Final margin
Chiefs by 18
Luck in points
20.5 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 38.5
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 87% · Raiders 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Chiefs · Raiders

More from Week 2 2019