luckadjusted

Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Texans, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 13–12, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:26 left): Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 12
Houston Texans 13

September 15, 2019 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −7.5

Luck index +14 Texans about even · −14 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Texans win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 21 HOU 14
  2. 2 JAX 20 HOU 23
  3. 3 JAX 21 HOU 26
  4. 4 JAX 12 HOU 20
  5. 5 JAX 13 HOU 24
  6. 6 JAX 3 HOU 17
  7. 7 JAX 0 HOU 16
  8. 8 JAX 7 HOU 25
  9. 9 JAX 24 HOU 45
  10. 10 JAX 15 HOU 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 14% of them, Texans 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+1.0%
Jaguars by 9–163.1%
Jaguars by 1–88.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Texans by 1–819.6%
Texans by 9–1624.5%
Texans by 17+41.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.8 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 1, without the luck Jaguars by 10.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Lambo, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Lambo, 32 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 9 for 70 yards, Texans 7 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:05 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans (Phillip Gaines), 10 yards +3% JAX +0.9 pts
Q1 9:19 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Keion Crossen), 7 yards +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q1 8:38 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 1:54 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Josh Robinson), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 1:03 Defensive Holding on the Texans, 5 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 6:25 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% HOU +1.6 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.3 pts
Q3 15:00 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q3 5:07 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +10% HOU +2.1 pts
Q3 4:41 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q4 13:26 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +19% HOU +3.6 pts
Q4 11:08 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 9:28 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Dede Westbrook), 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% HOU +3.5 pts
Q4 8:02 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +5% HOU +1.1 pts
Q4 3:59 Tripping on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% JAX +2.1 pts
Q4 0:43 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% JAX +0.6 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:26 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q3 14:00 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% HOU HOU: Punt
3 Q3 5:07 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yardsJudgment calls +10% HOU HOU: Punt
4 Q4 13:26 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:28 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Dede Westbrook), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 56 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +14% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q4 1:18 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:52 The Jaguars converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:30 The Jaguars’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +18% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Miller (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Yannick Ngakoue (JAX DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • A.J. Bouye (JAX CB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 89% · Texans 11%

Final margin
Texans by 1
Luck in points
11.8 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 10.8
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 14% · Texans 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Jaguars · Texans

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