2019 season · final
Jacksonville Jaguars, 2019: game by game
The Jaguars went 6–10 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–3.
Every game
How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Chiefs | L 26–40 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 2 | @ Texans | L 12–13 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 3 | vs Titans | W 20–7 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 4 | @ Broncos | W 26–24 | 15% | +85 |
| Week 5 | @ Panthers | L 27–34 | 59% | −59 |
| Week 6 | vs Saints | L 6–13 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 7 | @ Bengals | W 27–17 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 8 | vs Jets | W 29–15 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 9 | vs Texans | L 3–26 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 11 | @ Colts | L 13–33 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 12 | @ Titans | L 20–42 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 13 | vs Buccaneers | L 11–28 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 14 | vs Chargers | L 10–45 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 15 | @ Raiders | W 20–16 | 25% | +75 |
| Week 16 | @ Falcons | L 12–24 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 17 | vs Colts | W 38–20 | 59% | +41 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +1.15 | +18.4 |
| Injuries | +0.14 | +5.0 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.10 | −6.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.14 | −2.7 |
| Judgment calls | −1.23 | −32.0 |