luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Falcons, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Jaguars 24–12, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 71% favorites.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 12
Atlanta Falcons 24

December 22, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −7.5

Luck index +5 Falcons about even · −5 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 0, Falcons win 10.

  1. 1 JAX 27 ATL 30
  2. 2 JAX 20 ATL 27
  3. 3 JAX 31 ATL 41
  4. 4 JAX 20 ATL 33
  5. 5 JAX 24 ATL 41
  6. 6 JAX 14 ATL 34
  7. 7 JAX 20 ATL 42
  8. 8 JAX 10 ATL 34
  9. 9 JAX 9 ATL 38
  10. 10 JAX 16 ATL 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 5% of them, Falcons 95%. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.3%
Jaguars by 9–161.1%
Jaguars by 1–83.5%
Level after regulation0.3%
Falcons by 1–810.0%
Falcons by 9–1620.0%
Falcons by 17+64.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Falcons by 12, without the luck Falcons by 17.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 42 yds missed · 86% expected
  • J. Lambo, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • Y. Koo, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Lambo, 27 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 6 for 36 yards, Falcons 9 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:16 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Calais Campbell), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.5 pts
Q1 12:21 Encroachment on the Jaguars (Akeem Spence), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.5 pts
Q1 1:31 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +1.4 pts
Q2 8:42 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards 0% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 6:19 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% JAX +1.5 pts
Q2 0:10 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 10 yards +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 12:56 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% ATL +2.6 pts
Q3 9:02 False Start on the Jaguars, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 7:16 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Akeem Spence), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.5 pts
Q3 6:39 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Foyesade Oluokun), 5 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 4:04 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Kendall Sheffield), 5 yards +1% JAX +0.5 pts
Q3 3:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Isaiah Oliver), 13 yards +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 12:00 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Falcons (Justin Hardy), 8 yards 0% JAX +0.6 pts
Q4 4:30 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 3 yards, wiping out the play +2% JAX +2.2 pts
Q4 3:25 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:16 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Calais Campbell), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 842 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +3% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:27 The Jaguars fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% ATL JAX: Punt
3 Q1 1:27 Y. Koo missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +4% JAX ATL: Turnover
4 Q2 12:55 The Jaguars converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q2 1:58 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q3 12:56 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% ATL ATL: Punt
7 Q4 6:55 The Jaguars converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% JAX JAX: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 5:45 The Jaguars converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% JAX JAX: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Desmond Trufant (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Calvin Ridley (ATL WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • James Carpenter (ATL G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jamon Brown (ATL G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Takkarist McKinley (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Myles Jack (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Quincy Williams (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 0% · Falcons 100%

Final margin
Falcons by 12
Luck in points
5.3 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 17.3
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 5% · Falcons 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Jaguars · Falcons

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