luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Broncos, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Lions 27–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:27 left): the Lions converted 3rd & 8, worth 14 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 17
Denver Broncos 27

December 22, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −9.5

Luck index +24 Broncos about even · −24 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 2, Broncos win 8.

  1. 1 DET 12 DEN 0
  2. 2 DET 20 DEN 17
  3. 3 DET 13 DEN 16
  4. 4 DET 16 DEN 20
  5. 5 DET 3 DEN 10
  6. 6 DET 13 DEN 22
  7. 7 DET 7 DEN 19
  8. 8 DET 10 DEN 24
  9. 9 DET 15 DEN 34
  10. 10 DET 0 DEN 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 24% of them, Broncos 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+2.5%
Lions by 9–165.8%
Lions by 1–814.3%
Level after regulation3.8%
Broncos by 1–827.1%
Broncos by 9–1622.4%
Broncos by 17+24.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 10, without the luck Broncos by 3.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. McManus, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 7 for 68 yards, Broncos 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:47 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.7 pts
Q1 4:38 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +3% DET +1.2 pts
Q1 3:38 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +2% DET +0.9 pts
Q1 1:17 Defensive Holding on the Broncos, 5 yards +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 13:32 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% DET +1.9 pts
Q2 10:52 Defensive Holding on the Lions, 5 yards +2% DEN +0.9 pts
Q2 7:15 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Tracy Walker), 5 yards +1% DEN +0.4 pts
Q2 4:30 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Jalen Reeves-Maybin), 15 yards +6% DEN +2.0 pts
Q3 3:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Darius Slay), 13 yards +9% DEN +2.0 pts
Q4 11:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions, 15 yards +4% DEN +1.4 pts
Q4 6:39 Illegal Use of Hands on the Broncos (Von Miller), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% DEN +0.3 pts
Q4 5:30 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 10 yards +1% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 3:06 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Lions, 10 yards +2% DEN +0.9 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:27 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +14% DET DET: Field goal
2 Q1 9:11 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% DEN DET: Field goal
3 Q2 11:10 Return touchdown by the LionsSpecial teams +13% DET DET: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 4:30 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Jalen Reeves-Maybin), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 428 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +6% DEN DEN: Field goal
5 Q3 7:47 The Lions converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:56 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Darius Slay), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 736 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +9% DEN DEN: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:01 The Broncos converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% DEN DEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derek Wolfe (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ronald Leary (DEN G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Marvin Jones (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • T.J. Hockenson (DET TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jeff Driskel (DET QB), out (IR), replaced by d.blough · 0.5 pts
  • Jarrad Davis (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • A'Shawn Robinson (DET DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Jones (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Joe Dahl (DET G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 14% · Broncos 86%

Final margin
Broncos by 10
Luck in points
6.4 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
Lions 24% · Broncos 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Lions · Broncos

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