2019 season · final

Denver Broncos, 2019: game by game

The Broncos went 7–9 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.

Every game

How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Raiders	L 16–24	18%	−18
Week 2	vs Bears	L 14–16	90%	−90
Week 3	@ Packers	L 16–27	43%	−43
Week 4	vs Jaguars	L 24–26	85%	−85
Week 5	@ Chargers	W 20–13	36%	+64
Week 6	vs Titans	W 16–0	90%	+10
Week 7	vs Chiefs	L 6–30	2%	−2
Week 8	@ Colts	L 13–15	17%	−17
Week 9	vs Browns	W 24–19	65%	+35
Week 11	@ Vikings	L 23–27	37%	−37
Week 12	@ Bills	L 3–20	4%	−4
Week 13	vs Chargers	W 23–20	14%	+86
Week 14	@ Texans	W 38–24	48%	+52
Week 15	@ Chiefs	L 3–23	2%	−2
Week 16	vs Lions	W 27–17	76%	+24
Week 17	vs Raiders	W 16–15	13%	+87

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −18 @ OAK

Wk 2 −90 vs CHI

Wk 3 −43 @ GB

Wk 4 −85 vs JAX

Wk 5 +64 @ LAC

Wk 6 +10 vs TEN

Wk 7 −2 vs KC

Wk 8 −17 @ IND

Wk 9 +35 vs CLE

Wk 11 −37 @ MIN

Wk 12 −4 @ BUF

Wk 13 +86 vs LAC

Wk 14 +52 @ HOU

Wk 15 −2 @ KC

Wk 16 +24 vs DET

Wk 17 +87 vs OAK

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.52	+26.4
Injuries	+0.23	+9.5
Fumble bounces	+0.04	+9.4
Rest	−0.03	−0.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.17	+1.6
Kicks	−0.75	+1.4