luckadjusted

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Broncos, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Broncos stole one. They beat the Chargers 23–20, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 26 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:22 left): the Chargers converted 4th & 11, worth 23 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 20
Denver Broncos 23

December 1, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Chargers −4.5

Luck index +86 Broncos very lucky · −86 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 9, Broncos win 1.

  1. 1 LAC 35 DEN 7
  2. 2 LAC 28 DEN 6
  3. 3 LAC 33 DEN 14
  4. 4 LAC 24 DEN 9
  5. 5 LAC 26 DEN 13
  6. 6 LAC 27 DEN 17
  7. 7 LAC 22 DEN 16
  8. 8 LAC 16 DEN 13
  9. 9 LAC 26 DEN 24
  10. 10 LAC 25 DEN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 86% of them, Broncos 14%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+37.0%
Chargers by 9–1623.2%
Chargers by 1–824.7%
Level after regulation1.3%
Broncos by 1–89.4%
Broncos by 9–163.4%
Broncos by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.3 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 3, without the luck Chargers by 8.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. McManus, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Badgley, 55 yds missed · 58% expected
  • B. McManus, 52 yds made · 63% expected
  • M. Badgley, 46 yds made · 74% expected
  • B. McManus, 53 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 7 for 82 yards, Broncos 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:37 Roughing the Kicker on the Broncos (Devontae Booker), 15 yards +5% LAC +3.7 pts
Q2 8:48 Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +1.1 pts
Q2 0:38 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.5 pts
Q2 0:01 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.2 pts
Q3 14:34 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.9 pts
Q3 9:01 Roughing the Kicker on the Chargers (Drue Tranquill), 15 yards +9% DEN +4.1 pts
Q3 3:18 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% DEN +2.0 pts
Q4 2:22 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% DEN +0.5 pts
Q4 2:22 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.3 pts
Q4 0:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Casey Hayward), 37 yards +14% DEN +1.8 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:18 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% DEN LAC: Field goal
2 Q3 9:01 Roughing the Kicker on the Chargers (Drue Tranquill), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 355 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +9% DEN DEN: Punt
3 Q4 4:31 B. McManus made 52-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 5 of 8 from 45+ before +13% DEN DEN: Field goal
4 Q4 2:22 The Chargers converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Chargers, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on the Chargers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +23% LAC LAC: Field goal
5 Q4 1:04 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +21% DEN LAC: Field goal
6 Q4 0:19 M. Badgley made 46-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +11% LAC –
7 Q4 0:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Casey Hayward), 37 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 667 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +14% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 B. McManus made 53-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 6 of 9 from 45+ before +19% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Flacco (DEN QB), out (IR), replaced by d.lock · 0.6 pts
  • Von Miller (DEN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Duke Dawson (DEN CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Roderic Teamer (LAC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Pouncey (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Travis Benjamin (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Forrest Lamp (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 88% · Broncos 12%

Final margin
Broncos by 3
Luck in points
11.3 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 8.3
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 86% · Broncos 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Chargers · Broncos

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