luckadjusted

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Texans, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Patriots 28–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:05 left): the Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 12 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

New England Patriots 22
Houston Texans 28

December 1, 2019 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3.5

Luck index +32 Texans lucky · −32 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 3, Texans win 7.

  1. 1 NE 24 HOU 9
  2. 2 NE 27 HOU 20
  3. 3 NE 31 HOU 28
  4. 4 NE 19 HOU 20
  5. 5 NE 28 HOU 31
  6. 6 NE 24 HOU 30
  7. 7 NE 20 HOU 29
  8. 8 NE 17 HOU 31
  9. 9 NE 17 HOU 38
  10. 10 NE 14 HOU 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 32% of them, Texans 68%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+3.9%
Patriots by 9–167.7%
Patriots by 1–816.4%
Level after regulation4.7%
Texans by 1–826.1%
Texans by 9–1620.4%
Texans by 17+20.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Texans by 6, without the luck Texans by 9.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Forbath, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 8 for 60 yards, Texans 8 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Barkevious Mingo), 15 yards +5% NE +1.9 pts
Q1 4:55 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +5% NE +1.4 pts
Q1 2:05 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 15 yards +4% NE +1.5 pts
Q2 13:23 Illegal Blindside Block on the Texans, 12 yards +3% NE +1.1 pts
Q2 5:43 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots (Julian Edelman), 10 yards +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q3 14:23 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% NE +5.1 pts
Q3 4:26 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% HOU +2.5 pts
Q3 2:36 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Julian Edelman), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% HOU +4.0 pts
Q3 2:05 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (James White), 10 yards 0% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 0:11 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU 0.0 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Patriots, 5 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 13:01 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +1.2 pts
Q4 10:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Elandon Roberts), 5 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 9:53 Defensive Offside on the Patriots (Justin Bethel), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.5 pts
Q4 6:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 12 yards 0% NE +2.1 pts
Q4 1:28 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Zach Cunningham), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% HOU +0.8 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:49 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q1 3:41 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% NE HOU: Punt
3 Q1 2:05 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 385 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +12% HOU NE: Punt
4 Q1 0:45 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q2 15:00 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% NE NE: Punt
6 Q3 14:23 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 385 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +10% NE NE: Punt
7 Q3 5:49 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:17 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • J.J. Watt (HOU DE), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Gareon Conley (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Keke Coutee (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Phillip Gaines (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Brennan Scarlett (HOU LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jason McCourty (NE CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ryan Izzo (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 20% · Texans 80%

Final margin
Texans by 6
Luck in points
3.6 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 9.6
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 32% · Texans 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Patriots · Texans

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