luckadjusted

Week 13 2019 · November 28, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Cowboys, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Cowboys 26–15, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bills win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Bills.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:17 left): the Bills converted 4th & 1, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 26
Dallas Cowboys 15

November 28, 2019 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −6.5

Luck index +60 Bills lucky · −60 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 4, Cowboys win 6.

  1. 1 BUF 31 DAL 10
  2. 2 BUF 27 DAL 16
  3. 3 BUF 19 DAL 13
  4. 4 BUF 19 DAL 16
  5. 5 BUF 24 DAL 26
  6. 6 BUF 26 DAL 31
  7. 7 BUF 13 DAL 20
  8. 8 BUF 20 DAL 31
  9. 9 BUF 16 DAL 33
  10. 10 BUF 9 DAL 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 40% of them, Cowboys 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+6.6%
Bills by 9–1611.7%
Bills by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation3.2%
Cowboys by 1–825.6%
Cowboys by 9–1617.6%
Cowboys by 17+14.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 11, without the luck Bills by 7.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Hauschka, 50 yds missed · 73% expected
  • B. Maher, 35 yds blocked · 93% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • B. Maher, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 7 for 53 yards, Cowboys 5 for 66 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:55 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 5 yards +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q1 11:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 8 yards +3% DAL +1.0 pts
Q1 6:49 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 5 yards 0% DAL +0.2 pts
Q1 2:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Byron Jones), 23 yards +6% BUF +3.1 pts
Q2 3:20 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +4% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 1:52 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 5 yards, wiping out the play +13% DAL +3.4 pts
Q3 13:43 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Xavier Woods), 15 yards +3% BUF +1.7 pts
Q3 8:26 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q3 2:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Jerry Hughes), 15 yards +3% DAL +1.6 pts
Q4 10:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Darian Thompson), 18 yards 0% BUF +1.7 pts
Q4 8:07 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Jerry Hughes), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.4 pts
Q4 1:17 Encroachment on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.4 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:43 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% BUF BUF: Punt
2 Q2 6:51 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% DAL DAL: Turnover
3 Q2 4:30 S. Hauschka missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before +7% DAL BUF: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:31 The Cowboys fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BUF DAL: Missed field goal
5 Q2 2:17 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedThe Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:52 The Bills missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the timeIllegal Use of Hands on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 386 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 +14% DAL BUF: Field goal
7 Q2 0:04 B. Maher had a 35-yard field goal blockedKicks · 93% expected for him +13% BUF DAL: Missed field goal
8 Q3 7:42 B. Maher missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 5 of 10 from 45+ before +7% BUF DAL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jeff Heath (DAL SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Antwaun Woods (DAL DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Duke Williams (BUF WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ty Nsekhe (BUF T), out · 0.3 pts
  • T.J. Yeldon (BUF RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 85% · Cowboys 15%

Final margin
Bills by 11
Luck in points
3.2 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 7.8
Replay with same day's form
Bills 40% · Cowboys 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Bills · Cowboys

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