luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · November 28, 2019–December 2

Week 13 2019: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Broncos beat the Chargers 23–20 in a game they win 14% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 13 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Dolphins 37–31 vs Eagles 22% 55% Coin flip
Washington 29–21 @ Panthers 22% 69% Deserved
Bills 26–15 @ Cowboys 32% 40% Coin flip
Broncos 23–20 vs Chargers 37% 14% Lucky
Texans 28–22 vs Patriots 40% 68% Deserved
Bengals 22–6 vs Jets 43% 80% Deserved
Steelers 20–13 vs Browns 47% 77% Deserved

Week 13 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Broncos W 23–20 vs Chargers 14% +86
2 Titans W 31–17 @ Colts 24% +76
3 Bills W 26–15 @ Cowboys 40% +60
4 Dolphins W 37–31 vs Eagles 55% +45
5 Packers W 31–13 @ Giants 58% +42
6 Seahawks W 37–30 vs Vikings 60% +40
7 Bears W 24–20 @ Lions 66% +34
8 Texans W 28–22 vs Patriots 68% +32
9 Washington W 29–21 @ Panthers 69% +31
10 Ravens W 20–17 vs 49ers 69% +31
11 Steelers W 20–13 vs Browns 77% +23
12 Chiefs W 40–9 vs Raiders 78% +22
13 Bengals W 22–6 vs Jets 80% +20
14 Saints W 26–18 @ Falcons 83% +17
15 Buccaneers W 28–11 @ Jaguars 95% +5
16 Rams W 34–7 @ Cardinals 96% +4
17 Cardinals L 7–34 vs Rams 4% −4
18 Jaguars L 11–28 vs Buccaneers 5% −5
19 Falcons L 18–26 vs Saints 17% −17
20 Jets L 6–22 @ Bengals 20% −20
21 Raiders L 9–40 @ Chiefs 22% −22
22 Browns L 13–20 @ Steelers 23% −23
23 49ers L 17–20 @ Ravens 31% −31
24 Panthers L 21–29 vs Washington 31% −31
25 Patriots L 22–28 @ Texans 32% −32
26 Lions L 20–24 vs Bears 34% −34
27 Vikings L 30–37 @ Seahawks 40% −40
28 Giants L 13–31 vs Packers 42% −42
29 Eagles L 31–37 @ Dolphins 45% −45
30 Cowboys L 15–26 vs Bills 60% −60
31 Colts L 17–31 vs Titans 76% −76
32 Chargers L 20–23 @ Broncos 86% −86