luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · final

Every upset of 2019, and which were deserved

95 upsets in 2019, 50 of them deserved. The biggest: the Dolphins beat the Patriots 27–24 (Week 17) as 10% underdogs, and it was a coin flip on the day.

An upset is a win by the underdog of the closing betting line. The line says 92 of these 266 games should have gone to the underdog; 95 did. “Deserved” when the winner takes 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form; “lucky” under 40% (22 of 95).

#GameWhenBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
1 Dolphins 27, Patriots 24 2019 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2019 10%43%Coin flip
2 Falcons 26, Saints 9 2019 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2019 15%47%Coin flip
3 Dolphins 16, Colts 12 2019 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2019 21%8%Lucky
4 Dolphins 37, Eagles 31 2019 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2019 22%55%Coin flip
5 Colts 19, Chiefs 13 2019 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2019 22%83%Deserved
6 Washington 29, Panthers 21 2019 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2019 22%69%Deserved
7 Falcons 29, 49ers 22 2019 Week 15 · Dec 15, 2019 22%67%Deserved
8 Titans 28, Ravens 12 2019 Divisional round · Jan 11, 2020 23%59%Coin flip
9 Buccaneers 55, Rams 40 2019 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2019 25%36%Lucky
10 Broncos 38, Texans 24 2019 Week 14 · Dec 8, 2019 28%48%Coin flip
11 Cardinals 27, Seahawks 13 2019 Week 16 · Dec 22, 2019 28%93%Deserved
12 Browns 40, Ravens 25 2019 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2019 29%28%Lucky
13 Raiders 24, Chargers 17 2019 Week 16 · Dec 22, 2019 29%42%Coin flip
14 Vikings 26, Saints 20 2019 Wild Card · Jan 5, 2020 29%35%Lucky
15 Jets 24, Cowboys 22 2019 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2019 30%4%Lucky
16 Jaguars 20, Raiders 16 2019 Week 15 · Dec 15, 2019 30%25%Lucky
17 Raiders 24, Bears 21 2019 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2019 32%87%Deserved
18 Buccaneers 20, Panthers 14 2019 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2019 32%77%Deserved
19 Seahawks 27, 49ers 24 2019 Week 10 · Nov 11, 2019 32%44%Coin flip
20 Bills 26, Cowboys 15 2019 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2019 32%40%Coin flip
21 Steelers 24, Chargers 17 2019 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2019 33%17%Lucky
22 Titans 43, Browns 13 2019 Week 1 · Sep 8, 2019 34%87%Deserved
23 Panthers 16, Texans 10 2019 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2019 34%22%Lucky
24 Raiders 31, Colts 24 2019 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2019 34%55%Coin flip
25 Chiefs 26, Vikings 23 2019 Week 9 · Nov 3, 2019 34%53%Coin flip
26 Saints 33, Seahawks 27 2019 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2019 36%69%Deserved
27 Giants 32, Buccaneers 31 2019 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2019 36%17%Lucky
28 Titans 35, Chiefs 32 2019 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2019 36%36%Lucky
29 Jaguars 38, Colts 20 2019 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2019 36%59%Coin flip
30 Titans 20, Patriots 13 2019 Wild Card · Jan 4, 2020 37%39%Lucky
31 Broncos 23, Chargers 20 2019 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2019 37%14%Lucky
32 Seahawks 28, Steelers 26 2019 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2019 38%55%Coin flip
33 Lions 27, Eagles 24 2019 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2019 38%64%Deserved
34 Broncos 20, Chargers 13 2019 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2019 38%36%Lucky
35 Saints 36, Bears 25 2019 Week 7 · Oct 20, 2019 38%99%Deserved
36 Packers 23, Vikings 10 2019 Week 16 · Dec 23, 2019 38%75%Deserved
37 Broncos 24, Browns 19 2019 Week 9 · Nov 3, 2019 38%65%Deserved
38 Chargers 26, Packers 11 2019 Week 9 · Nov 3, 2019 38%87%Deserved
39 Steelers 17, Rams 12 2019 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2019 38%22%Lucky
40 Washington 19, Lions 16 2019 Week 12 · Nov 24, 2019 38%13%Lucky
41 Dolphins 26, Jets 18 2019 Week 9 · Nov 3, 2019 40%80%Deserved
42 Jets 34, Raiders 3 2019 Week 12 · Nov 24, 2019 40%75%Deserved
43 Texans 28, Patriots 22 2019 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2019 40%68%Deserved
44 Packers 10, Bears 3 2019 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2019 40%77%Deserved
45 Eagles 34, Packers 27 2019 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2019 40%84%Deserved
46 Titans 24, Falcons 10 2019 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2019 40%27%Lucky
47 Bills 14, Titans 7 2019 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2019 40%70%Deserved
48 Packers 34, Cowboys 24 2019 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2019 40%7%Lucky
49 Texans 31, Chiefs 24 2019 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2019 40%71%Deserved
50 Cardinals 27, Giants 21 2019 Week 7 · Oct 20, 2019 40%87%Deserved
51 Chargers 17, Bears 16 2019 Week 8 · Oct 27, 2019 40%78%Deserved
52 Vikings 28, Cowboys 24 2019 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2019 40%44%Coin flip
53 Falcons 29, Panthers 3 2019 Week 11 · Nov 17, 2019 40%76%Deserved
54 Buccaneers 35, Falcons 22 2019 Week 12 · Nov 24, 2019 40%96%Deserved
55 Raiders 24, Broncos 16 2019 Week 1 · Sep 9, 2019 41%82%Deserved
56 Colts 19, Titans 17 2019 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2019 41%80%Deserved
57 Texans 27, Chargers 20 2019 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2019 41%44%Coin flip
58 Cardinals 26, Bengals 23 2019 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2019 41%75%Deserved
59 Cardinals 34, Falcons 33 2019 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2019 41%31%Lucky
60 49ers 20, Rams 7 2019 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2019 41%90%Deserved
61 Ravens 30, Seahawks 16 2019 Week 7 · Oct 20, 2019 41%64%Deserved
62 Ravens 37, Patriots 20 2019 Week 9 · Nov 3, 2019 41%91%Deserved
63 Jets 34, Giants 27 2019 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2019 41%77%Deserved
64 Bears 31, Cowboys 24 2019 Week 14 · Dec 5, 2019 41%13%Lucky
65 Chiefs 23, Patriots 16 2019 Week 14 · Dec 8, 2019 41%47%Coin flip
66 Cardinals 38, Browns 24 2019 Week 15 · Dec 15, 2019 41%86%Deserved
67 Texans 24, Titans 21 2019 Week 15 · Dec 15, 2019 41%70%Deserved
68 Jets 16, Steelers 10 2019 Week 16 · Dec 22, 2019 41%51%Coin flip
69 Bills 17, Jets 16 2019 Week 1 · Sep 8, 2019 43%89%Deserved
70 Panthers 38, Cardinals 20 2019 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2019 43%89%Deserved
71 Saints 12, Cowboys 10 2019 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2019 43%42%Coin flip
72 Jaguars 26, Broncos 24 2019 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2019 43%15%Lucky
73 Saints 13, Jaguars 6 2019 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2019 43%49%Coin flip
74 Bengals 22, Jets 6 2019 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2019 43%80%Deserved
75 Bengals 33, Browns 23 2019 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2019 43%49%Coin flip
76 Eagles 17, Cowboys 9 2019 Week 16 · Dec 22, 2019 44%55%Coin flip
77 Ravens 28, Steelers 10 2019 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2019 44%96%Deserved
78 Jaguars 20, Titans 7 2019 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2019 46%91%Deserved
79 Dolphins 38, Bengals 35 2019 Week 16 · Dec 22, 2019 46%78%Deserved
80 Lions 13, Chargers 10 2019 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2019 47%28%Lucky
81 Falcons 24, Eagles 20 2019 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2019 47%88%Deserved
82 Bears 16, Vikings 6 2019 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2019 47%61%Deserved
83 Raiders 26, Chargers 24 2019 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2019 47%41%Coin flip
84 Steelers 20, Browns 13 2019 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2019 47%77%Deserved
85 Cowboys 44, Rams 21 2019 Week 15 · Dec 15, 2019 47%92%Deserved
86 49ers 31, Buccaneers 17 2019 Week 1 · Sep 8, 2019 47%59%Coin flip
87 49ers 41, Bengals 17 2019 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2019 47%99%Deserved
88 Seahawks 32, Browns 28 2019 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2019 47%58%Coin flip
89 Eagles 31, Bills 13 2019 Week 8 · Oct 27, 2019 47%96%Deserved
90 Texans 26, Jaguars 3 2019 Week 9 · Nov 3, 2019 47%85%Deserved
91 Jets 34, Washington 17 2019 Week 11 · Nov 17, 2019 47%87%Deserved
92 49ers 48, Saints 46 2019 Week 14 · Dec 8, 2019 47%67%Deserved
93 Bills 17, Steelers 10 2019 Week 15 · Dec 15, 2019 47%73%Deserved
94 Falcons 28, Buccaneers 22 2019 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2019 47%14%Lucky
95 Seahawks 17, Eagles 9 2019 Wild Card · Jan 5, 2020 47%69%Deserved

Upsets week by week

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020

The biggest upsets since 2019 · 2019 luck rankings · Do unlucky teams cover the spread?