Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Buccaneers at Rams, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Rams 55–40, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form.
Before kickoff the Rams were 75% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:25 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 34 points of win probability to the Rams.
Final
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 55 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +64 Buccaneers very lucky · −64 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buccaneers win 4, Rams win 6.
- 1 TB 30 LA 13
- 2 TB 34 LA 24
- 3 TB 34 LA 27
- 4 TB 27 LA 24
- 5 TB 14 LA 16
- 6 TB 17 LA 22
- 7 TB 28 LA 37
- 8 TB 31 LA 44
- 9 TB 21 LA 38
- 10 TB 17 LA 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buccaneers win 36% of them, Rams 64%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 6.8% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 10.5% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 25.6% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 18.5% |
| Rams by 17+ | 18.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 58 yds made · 61% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 44 yds made · 83% expected
- M. Gay, 58 yds made · 61% expected
- M. Gay, 21 yds made · 99% expected
Penalties: Buccaneers 12 for 99 yards, Rams 13 for 106 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:48 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Vita Vea), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.6 pts |
| Q1 10:48 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TB +0.6 pts |
| Q1 10:35 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | +5% TB +1.3 pts |
| Q1 1:17 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TB +1.0 pts |
| Q1 1:12 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Devante Bond), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:39 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Robert Woods), 15 yards | +3% TB +1.3 pts |
| Q2 5:46 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jordan Whitehead), 10 yards | 0% LA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:34 | Illegal Shift on the Buccaneers (Chris Godwin), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% LA +2.9 pts |
| Q2 4:16 | Fair Catch Interference on the Buccaneers (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 15 yards | +2% LA +1.4 pts |
| Q2 3:07 | Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Carl Nassib), 5 yards | +1% LA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:35 | Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Michael Brockers), 15 yards | +6% TB +1.9 pts |
| Q3 11:49 | Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Rakeem Nunez-Roches), 14 yards | +10% LA +3.1 pts |
| Q3 7:10 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (O.J. Howard), 10 yards | +1% LA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 13:47 | Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Kevin Minter), 15 yards | +1% LA +1.5 pts |
| Q4 13:15 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:35 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | 0% TB +1.1 pts |
| Q4 6:07 | Defensive Holding on the Rams (Sebastian Joseph-Day), 5 yards | +4% TB +0.7 pts |
| Q4 1:18 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Brandin Cooks), 10 yards | +1% TB +0.7 pts |
| Q4 1:18 | Encroachment on the Buccaneers (Carl Nassib), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% LA +1.7 pts |
| Q4 1:06 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Rams (Sebastian Joseph-Day), 8 yards | 0% TB 0.0 pts |
| Q4 1:06 | Offensive Holding on the Rams (Malcolm Brown), 8 yards | 0% TB +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:45 | Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Carl Nassib), 5 yards | 0% LA +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:39 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Rakeem Nunez-Roches), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LA +0.2 pts |
Buccaneers penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Rams’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:00 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +7% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 13:39 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Robert Woods), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 201 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 | +17% TB | LA: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 5:34 | Illegal Shift on the Buccaneers (Chris Godwin), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 193 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 | +6% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 13:41 | The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +7% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 10:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Rakeem Nunez-Roches), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 51 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 | +10% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 8:25 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedReturn touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams | +34% LA | TB: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 6:46 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% TB | TB: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:17 | The Rams fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams | +16% TB | LA: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Devin White (TB LB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buccaneers 96% · Rams 4%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 15
- Luck in points
- 2.9 for the Buccaneers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 12.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Buccaneers 36% · Rams 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · 
Buccaneers · 
Rams
More from Week 4 2019
- Eagles at Packers PHI 34–27 · replay 84% for the winner
- Panthers at Texans CAR 16–10 · replay 22% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens CLE 40–25 · replay 28% for the winner
- Chiefs at Lions KC 34–30 · replay 82% for the winner
- Chargers at Dolphins LAC 30–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills NE 16–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Raiders at Colts OAK 31–24 · replay 55% for the winner
- Titans at Falcons TEN 24–10 · replay 27% for the winner
- Washington at Giants NYG 24–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 27–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos JAX 26–24 · replay 15% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears CHI 16–6 · replay 61% for the winner
- Cowboys at Saints NO 12–10 · replay 42% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 27–3 · replay 78% for the winner