luckadjusted

Week 4 2019 · September 30, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Steelers, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Bengals 27–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:06 left): the Steelers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 27

September 30, 2019 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −3.5

Luck index +22 Steelers about even · −22 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 2, Steelers win 8.

  1. 1 CIN 16 PIT 3
  2. 2 CIN 6 PIT 3
  3. 3 CIN 14 PIT 16
  4. 4 CIN 10 PIT 13
  5. 5 CIN 20 PIT 26
  6. 6 CIN 10 PIT 19
  7. 7 CIN 3 PIT 15
  8. 8 CIN 7 PIT 22
  9. 9 CIN 6 PIT 26
  10. 10 CIN 10 PIT 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 22% of them, Steelers 78%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+1.7%
Bengals by 9–165.9%
Bengals by 1–812.6%
Level after regulation2.6%
Steelers by 1–828.3%
Steelers by 9–1621.5%
Steelers by 17+27.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Steelers by 24, without the luck Steelers by 24.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 49 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 8 for 60 yards, Steelers 4 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:58 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals (Andrew Billings), 5 yards +1% PIT +0.4 pts
Q1 1:34 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers, 10 yards +3% CIN +0.8 pts
Q2 13:19 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.5 pts
Q3 12:14 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.7 pts
Q3 6:55 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.4 pts
Q3 5:38 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Bengals (Brandon Wilson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% PIT +1.2 pts
Q4 14:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Steven Nelson), 8 yards +1% CIN +1.9 pts
Q4 11:08 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.1 pts
Q4 11:02 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Bengals (B.W. Webb), 15 yards 0% PIT +1.7 pts
Q4 8:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Andrew Billings), 15 yards 0% PIT +1.8 pts
Q4 2:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joe Haden), 14 yards 0% CIN +3.2 pts
Q4 2:31 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.4 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:33 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% CIN CIN: Punt
2 Q1 9:27 The Steelers fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CIN PIT: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 8:30 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% PIT CIN: Field goal
4 Q1 4:06 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% CIN PIT: Punt
5 Q2 10:39 The Steelers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q2 5:54 The Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% PIT CIN: End of half
7 Q2 1:48 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +5% CIN PIT: Field goal
8 Q3 12:46 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% PIT PIT: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sean Davis (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Vance McDonald (PIT TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Vince Williams (PIT LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cordy Glenn (CIN T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ryan Glasgow (CIN DT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 0% · Steelers 100%

Final margin
Steelers by 24
Luck in points
0.3 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 24.3
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 22% · Steelers 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Bengals · Steelers

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