luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · September 26, 2019–September 30

Week 4 2019: who deserved to win

8 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Jaguars beat the Broncos 26–24 in a game they win 15% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 4 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 9 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Buccaneers 55–40 @ Rams 25% 36% Lucky
Browns 40–25 @ Ravens 29% 28% Lucky
Panthers 16–10 @ Texans 34% 22% Lucky
Raiders 31–24 @ Colts 34% 55% Coin flip
Eagles 34–27 @ Packers 40% 84% Deserved
Titans 24–10 @ Falcons 40% 27% Lucky
Jaguars 26–24 @ Broncos 43% 15% Lucky
Saints 12–10 vs Cowboys 43% 42% Coin flip
Bears 16–6 vs Vikings 47% 61% Deserved

Week 4 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jaguars W 26–24 @ Broncos 15% +85
2 Panthers W 16–10 @ Texans 22% +78
3 Titans W 24–10 @ Falcons 27% +73
4 Browns W 40–25 @ Ravens 28% +72
5 Patriots W 16–10 @ Bills 30% +70
6 Buccaneers W 55–40 @ Rams 36% +64
7 Saints W 12–10 vs Cowboys 42% +58
8 Seahawks W 27–10 @ Cardinals 46% +54
9 Raiders W 31–24 @ Colts 55% +45
10 Bears W 16–6 vs Vikings 61% +39
11 Giants W 24–3 vs Washington 72% +28
12 Steelers W 27–3 vs Bengals 78% +22
13 Chiefs W 34–30 @ Lions 82% +18
14 Eagles W 34–27 @ Packers 84% +16
15 Chargers W 30–10 @ Dolphins 96% +4
16 Dolphins L 10–30 vs Chargers 4% −4
17 Packers L 27–34 vs Eagles 16% −16
18 Lions L 30–34 vs Chiefs 18% −18
19 Bengals L 3–27 @ Steelers 22% −22
20 Washington L 3–24 @ Giants 28% −28
21 Vikings L 6–16 @ Bears 39% −39
22 Colts L 24–31 vs Raiders 45% −45
23 Cardinals L 10–27 vs Seahawks 54% −54
24 Cowboys L 10–12 @ Saints 58% −58
25 Rams L 40–55 vs Buccaneers 64% −64
26 Bills L 10–16 vs Patriots 70% −70
27 Ravens L 25–40 vs Browns 72% −72
28 Falcons L 10–24 vs Titans 73% −73
29 Texans L 10–16 vs Panthers 78% −78
30 Broncos L 24–26 vs Jaguars 85% −85