Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Browns at Ravens, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?
The Browns beat the Ravens 40–25, but the Ravens played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:42 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 10 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 40 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +72 Browns very lucky · −72 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 3, Ravens win 7.
- 1 CLE 40 BAL 24
- 2 CLE 36 BAL 28
- 3 CLE 37 BAL 34
- 4 CLE 20 BAL 22
- 5 CLE 31 BAL 37
- 6 CLE 42 BAL 51
- 7 CLE 21 BAL 33
- 8 CLE 26 BAL 41
- 9 CLE 28 BAL 49
- 10 CLE 3 BAL 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 28% of them, Ravens 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 4.8% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 7.6% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 15.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.0% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 26.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- A. Seibert, 24 yds made · 99% expected
- J. Tucker, 41 yds made · 85% expected
- A. Seibert, 43 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Browns 6 for 41 yards, Ravens 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:57 | False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:29 | Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards | +7% CLE +2.3 pts |
| Q1 6:49 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Browns (Damion Ratley), 15 yards | +5% BAL +1.7 pts |
| Q2 0:51 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards | 0% BAL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 14:22 | Defensive Holding on the Browns, 5 yards | +1% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:12 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +4% BAL +1.5 pts |
| Q4 9:51 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% BAL 0.0 pts |
| Q4 9:47 | False Start on the Browns (Demetrius Harris), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:47 | Illegal Shift on the Ravens (Marquise Brown), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% CLE +3.2 pts |
Browns penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:15 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% BAL | CLE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:00 | The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:29 | Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 160 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +7% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:57 | The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +6% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 5:42 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +10% BAL | CLE: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 2:14 | The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 0:16 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% BAL | CLE: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 6:20 | The Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% CLE | BAL: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Brandon Williams (BAL DT), out · 0.3 pts
- Tavon Young (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
- David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Christian Kirksey (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Morgan Burnett (CLE SS), out · 0.4 pts
- Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Rashard Higgins (CLE WR), out · 0.2 pts
- Genard Avery (CLE LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 100% · Ravens 0%
- Final margin
- Browns by 15
- Luck in points
- 2.9 for the Ravens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 17.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 28% · Ravens 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · 
Browns · 
Ravens
More from Week 4 2019
- Eagles at Packers PHI 34–27 · replay 84% for the winner
- Panthers at Texans CAR 16–10 · replay 22% for the winner
- Chiefs at Lions KC 34–30 · replay 82% for the winner
- Chargers at Dolphins LAC 30–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills NE 16–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Raiders at Colts OAK 31–24 · replay 55% for the winner
- Titans at Falcons TEN 24–10 · replay 27% for the winner
- Washington at Giants NYG 24–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 27–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Rams TB 55–40 · replay 36% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos JAX 26–24 · replay 15% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears CHI 16–6 · replay 61% for the winner
- Cowboys at Saints NO 12–10 · replay 42% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 27–3 · replay 78% for the winner