luckadjusted

Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Texans, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Texans 16–10, but the Texans played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Texans were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:20 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 36 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 16
Houston Texans 10

September 29, 2019 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −5.5

Luck index +78 Panthers very lucky · −78 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Texans win 8.

  1. 1 CAR 28 HOU 14
  2. 2 CAR 16 HOU 13
  3. 3 CAR 24 HOU 26
  4. 4 CAR 23 HOU 27
  5. 5 CAR 16 HOU 23
  6. 6 CAR 7 HOU 17
  7. 7 CAR 10 HOU 24
  8. 8 CAR 17 HOU 34
  9. 9 CAR 0 HOU 23
  10. 10 CAR 21 HOU 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 22% of them, Texans 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+2.8%
Panthers by 9–166.6%
Panthers by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation2.0%
Texans by 1–825.4%
Texans by 9–1619.7%
Texans by 17+31.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 6, without the luck Panthers by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 52 yds missed · 70% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Slye, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • J. Slye, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 6 for 35 yards, Texans 7 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 36 yards +13% CAR +3.8 pts
Q1 7:21 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Shaq Thompson), 5 yards +3% HOU +1.4 pts
Q2 11:15 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CAR +2.1 pts
Q2 10:59 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (James Bradberry), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% HOU +1.4 pts
Q2 8:11 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.5 pts
Q2 0:16 Illegal Motion on the Panthers (Marquis Haynes), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 12:34 Chop Block on the Texans, 15 yards +4% CAR +1.4 pts
Q3 4:24 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.5 pts
Q3 3:51 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers (Natrell Jamerson), 10 yards +5% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 0:38 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Angelo Blackson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.1 pts
Q4 13:34 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% CAR +1.9 pts
Q4 5:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Ross Cockrell), 5 yards +4% HOU +1.2 pts
Q4 4:05 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.6 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 36 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 132 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +13% CAR CAR: Turnover
2 Q2 13:40 K. Fairbairn missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before +9% CAR HOU: Field goal
3 Q2 5:31 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% CAR CAR: Turnover
4 Q2 4:27 The Panthers fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% HOU CAR: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:57 The Panthers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +11% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 14:55 J. Slye made 55-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 5 of 6 from 45+ before +12% CAR CAR: Punt
7 Q4 13:34 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +9% CAR CAR: Punt
8 Q4 4:11 The Texans fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% CAR HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Miller (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Seantrel Henderson (HOU T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Trai Turner (CAR G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DT), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 48% · Texans 52%

Final margin
Panthers by 6
Luck in points
4.7 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 22% · Texans 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Panthers · Texans

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