luckadjusted

Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Bears, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Vikings 16–6 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:00 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Allen Robinson), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 6
Chicago Bears 16

September 29, 2019 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Vikings −1

Luck index +39 Bears lucky · −39 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 4, Bears win 6.

  1. 1 MIN 22 CHI 3
  2. 2 MIN 24 CHI 13
  3. 3 MIN 14 CHI 7
  4. 4 MIN 10 CHI 7
  5. 5 MIN 13 CHI 15
  6. 6 MIN 10 CHI 14
  7. 7 MIN 14 CHI 21
  8. 8 MIN 17 CHI 27
  9. 9 MIN 16 CHI 31
  10. 10 MIN 10 CHI 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 39% of them, Bears 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+5.1%
Vikings by 9–1612.9%
Vikings by 1–819.2%
Level after regulation3.3%
Bears by 1–830.0%
Bears by 9–1617.6%
Bears by 17+11.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Bears by 10, without the luck Bears by 12.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 7 for 55 yards, Bears 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:19 Defensive Holding on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% CHI +3.4 pts
Q1 8:18 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.7 pts
Q1 3:08 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Duke Shelley), 5 yards +1% MIN +0.4 pts
Q1 1:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Allen Robinson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% MIN +5.4 pts
Q2 13:17 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Linval Joseph), 5 yards +1% CHI +0.5 pts
Q2 11:51 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Aaron Lynch), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 9:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Eddie Jackson), 15 yards +4% MIN +1.9 pts
Q2 9:10 Defensive Holding on the Bears (Khalil Mack), 5 yards +3% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 8:25 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears, 5 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 6:36 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Shamar Stephen), 15 yards +3% CHI +0.9 pts
Q3 6:52 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.7 pts
Q3 1:25 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.7 pts
Q4 13:24 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +1% CHI +0.9 pts
Q4 6:02 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards 0% CHI +0.9 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:19 Defensive Holding on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% CHI CHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:52 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% MIN CHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:14 The Bears converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% CHI CHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:54 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% MIN MIN: Punt
5 Q1 1:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Allen Robinson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 178 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +12% MIN MIN: Turnover
6 Q2 15:00 The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% CHI CHI: Punt
7 Q2 4:05 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% CHI CHI: Field goal
8 Q2 1:12 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% CHI CHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Gabriel (CHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kyle Long (CHI G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Akiem Hicks (CHI DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Kline (MIN G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 10% · Bears 90%

Final margin
Bears by 10
Luck in points
2.3 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 12.3
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 39% · Bears 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Vikings · Bears

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