luckadjusted

Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 27–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:23 left): Return touchdown by the Seahawks, worth 17 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 27
Arizona Cardinals 10

September 29, 2019 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −5.5

Luck index +54 Seahawks lucky · −54 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 5, Cardinals win 5.

  1. 1 SEA 31 ARI 13
  2. 2 SEA 23 ARI 10
  3. 3 SEA 21 ARI 12
  4. 4 SEA 21 ARI 17
  5. 5 SEA 19 ARI 17
  6. 6 SEA 15 ARI 17
  7. 7 SEA 19 ARI 23
  8. 8 SEA 6 ARI 15
  9. 9 SEA 7 ARI 20
  10. 10 SEA 10 ARI 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 46% of them, Cardinals 54%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+7.4%
Seahawks by 9–1614.1%
Seahawks by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation7.0%
Cardinals by 1–823.6%
Cardinals by 9–1615.6%
Cardinals by 17+9.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.8 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 17, without the luck Seahawks by 4.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
  • J. Myers, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 48 yds missed · 78% expected
  • J. Myers, 24 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 7 for 65 yards, Cardinals 7 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:15 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Maxx Williams), 10 yards +1% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 5:38 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Cassius Marsh), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q2 4:59 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 5 yards +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 10:20 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Ben Burr-Kirven), 10 yards +1% ARI +0.8 pts
Q3 6:10 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards 0% ARI +0.9 pts
Q3 3:58 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Christian Kirk), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% SEA +2.3 pts
Q3 1:06 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (David Moore), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% ARI +1.8 pts
Q4 12:11 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 5 yards +1% ARI +0.2 pts
Q4 11:59 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% SEA +2.3 pts
Q4 11:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Tedric Thompson), 15 yards 0% ARI +1.8 pts
Q4 10:21 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 4:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals, 2 yards 0% SEA +0.6 pts
Q4 4:00 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Will Dissly), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% ARI +2.3 pts
Q4 3:11 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals (Chandler Jones), 7 yards 0% SEA +1.3 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:53 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% ARI ARI: Missed field goal
2 Q1 9:52 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% SEA ARI: Missed field goal
3 Q1 9:48 Z. Gonzalez missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +8% SEA ARI: Opp touchdown
4 Q1 8:38 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +6% SEA SEA: Field goal
5 Q1 4:23 Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +17% SEA SEA: Opp touchdown
6 Q1 2:43 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% ARI ARI: Field goal
7 Q2 12:23 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q2 7:00 The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% SEA SEA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Damiere Byrd (ARI WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Andy Lee (ARI P), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ed Dickson (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Simmons (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 74% · Cardinals 26%

Final margin
Seahawks by 17
Luck in points
12.8 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 46% · Cardinals 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Seahawks · Cardinals

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