luckadjusted

2019 season · final

Seattle Seahawks, 2019: game by game

The Seahawks went 11–5 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.1 wins. Luck added 3.9: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 10–2.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.3.

Every game

How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Bengals W 21–20 38% +62
Week 2 @ Steelers W 28–26 55% +45
Week 3 vs Saints L 27–33 31% −31
Week 4 @ Cardinals W 27–10 46% +54
Week 5 vs Rams W 30–29 43% +57
Week 6 @ Browns W 32–28 58% +42
Week 7 vs Ravens L 16–30 36% −36
Week 8 @ Falcons W 27–20 37% +63
Week 9 vs Buccaneers W 40–34 80% +20
Week 10 @ 49ers W 27–24 44% +56
Week 12 @ Eagles W 17–9 53% +47
Week 13 vs Vikings W 37–30 60% +40
Week 14 @ Rams L 12–28 13% −13
Week 15 @ Panthers W 30–24 79% +21
Week 16 vs Cardinals L 13–27 7% −7
Week 17 vs 49ers L 21–26 28% −28
Wild Card @ Eagles W 17–9 69% +31
Divisional round @ Packers L 23–28 57% −57

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+0.67+14.4
3rd & 4th downs+0.27+0.5
Fumble bounces+0.14+9.4
Judgment calls−0.19−3.0