Week 15 2019 · December 15, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Seahawks at Panthers, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Panthers 30–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:00 left): Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 30 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Seahawks about even · −21 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 8, Panthers win 2.
- 1 SEA 37 CAR 6
- 2 SEA 40 CAR 17
- 3 SEA 37 CAR 19
- 4 SEA 35 CAR 20
- 5 SEA 18 CAR 6
- 6 SEA 38 CAR 29
- 7 SEA 23 CAR 17
- 8 SEA 27 CAR 24
- 9 SEA 24 CAR 27
- 10 SEA 14 CAR 29
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 79% of them, Panthers 21%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 36.6% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 21.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 12.3% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 5.8% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 2.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 52 yds made · 68% expected
- J. Myers, 30 yds made · 96% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Seahawks 5 for 40 yards, Panthers 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:27 | Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +0.8 pts |
| Q2 13:08 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +2% CAR +1.0 pts |
| Q2 11:07 | Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Gerald McCoy), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +8% SEA +2.6 pts |
| Q2 1:38 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers (Ross Cockrell), 10 yards | +2% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:30 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +0.8 pts |
| Q4 3:00 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% CAR +1.8 pts |
| Q4 2:29 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +3% CAR +0.7 pts |
Seahawks penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:49 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +5% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 13:46 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +7% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 11:07 | Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Gerald McCoy), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 646 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 | +8% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 0:30 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +7% SEA | CAR: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 6:37 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% CAR | CAR: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 3:19 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 3:00 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% CAR | – |
| 8 | Q4 2:24 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% SEA | SEA: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Greg Olsen (CAR TE), out · 1.1 pts
- Greg Little (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Dontari Poe (CAR NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Greg Van Roten (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Shaquill Griffin (SEA CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Jadeveon Clowney (SEA DE), out · 0.7 pts
- Justin Britt (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Mychal Kendricks (SEA LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 100% · Panthers 0%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 6
- Luck in points
- 8.2 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 14.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 79% · Panthers 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · 
Seahawks · 
Panthers
More from Week 15 2019
- Jets at Ravens BAL 42–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 21–13 · replay 78% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 23–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 24–21 · replay 70% for the winner
- Dolphins at Giants NYG 36–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- Patriots at Bengals NE 34–13 · replay 38% for the winner
- Eagles at Washington PHI 37–27 · replay 28% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Lions TB 38–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Browns at Cardinals ARI 38–24 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jaguars at Raiders JAX 20–16 · replay 25% for the winner
- Vikings at Chargers MIN 39–10 · replay 74% for the winner
- Falcons at 49ers ATL 29–22 · replay 67% for the winner
- Rams at Cowboys DAL 44–21 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bills at Steelers BUF 17–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Colts at Saints NO 34–7 · replay 92% for the winner