Week 15 2019 · December 15, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Eagles at Washington, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat Washington 37–27, but Washington played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Eagles.
The Eagles won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Washington they would win 69% of the time; with this day’s form, 28%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Eagles were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:06 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles, worth 31 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 37 |
|---|---|
 Washington Redskins | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +72 Eagles very lucky · −72 Washington
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 3, Washington win 7.
- 1 PHI 36 WAS 20
- 2 PHI 26 WAS 19
- 3 PHI 24 WAS 21
- 4 PHI 14 WAS 16
- 5 PHI 20 WAS 24
- 6 PHI 17 WAS 24
- 7 PHI 24 WAS 34
- 8 PHI 14 WAS 28
- 9 PHI 20 WAS 38
- 10 PHI 10 WAS 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Eagles won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Washington they would win 69% of the time; with this day’s form, 28%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | +0.27 | +0.10 | better by 0.18 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.11 | worse by 0.06 |
| Washington offenseEPA per play gained | +0.17 | −0.00 | better by 0.17 |
| Washington defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.27 | +0.14 | worse by 0.14 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 28% of them, Washington 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 4.0% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 8.4% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 14.1% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 25.3% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 22.4% |
| Washington by 17+ | 22.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- D. Hopkins, 53 yds made · 61% expected
- D. Hopkins, 43 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: Eagles 7 for 54 yards, Washington 5 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:30 | Unnecessary Roughness on Washington (Montae Nicholson), 15 yards | +4% PHI +1.3 pts |
| Q2 14:10 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 10 yards | +3% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:40 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WAS +0.4 pts |
| Q2 13:16 | Roughing the Passer on Washington (Ryan Anderson), 15 yards | +6% PHI +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:11 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles (JJ Arcega-Whiteside), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% WAS +2.2 pts |
| Q2 9:53 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Jalen Mills), 14 yards | +3% WAS +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:21 | Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% WAS +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:15 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PHI +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:15 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Genard Avery), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WAS +0.3 pts |
| Q3 11:17 | Roughing the Passer on Washington (Daron Payne), 15 yards | +4% PHI +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:25 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% WAS +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:14 | Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards | +4% PHI +0.9 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Washington’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:38 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +11% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 10:33 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +10% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 1:01 | Washington converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +9% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 13:43 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +22% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 10:02 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +9% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 8:06 | D. Hopkins made 53-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before | +14% WAS | WAS: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 6:40 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +21% WAS | PHI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:06 | Washington fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams | +31% PHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Quinton Dunbar (WAS CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out · 0.6 pts
- Ryan Kerrigan (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Paul Richardson (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Trey Quinn (WAS WR), out · 0.3 pts
- Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
- Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Nelson Agholor (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Jordan Howard (PHI RB), out · 0.2 pts
- Hassan Ridgeway (PHI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 73% · Washington 27%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 10
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 5.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 28% · Washington 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · 
Eagles · 
Washington
More from Week 15 2019
- Jets at Ravens BAL 42–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 21–13 · replay 78% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 23–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 24–21 · replay 70% for the winner
- Dolphins at Giants NYG 36–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- Patriots at Bengals NE 34–13 · replay 38% for the winner
- Seahawks at Panthers SEA 30–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Lions TB 38–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Browns at Cardinals ARI 38–24 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jaguars at Raiders JAX 20–16 · replay 25% for the winner
- Vikings at Chargers MIN 39–10 · replay 74% for the winner
- Falcons at 49ers ATL 29–22 · replay 67% for the winner
- Rams at Cowboys DAL 44–21 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bills at Steelers BUF 17–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Colts at Saints NO 34–7 · replay 92% for the winner