Week 15 2019 · December 15, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Patriots at Bengals, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?
The Patriots beat the Bengals 34–13, but the Bengals played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Patriots.
The Patriots won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 79% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Patriots were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:32 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 17 points of win probability to the Patriots.
Final
 New England Patriots | 34 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Patriots very lucky · −62 Bengals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Patriots win 4, Bengals win 6.
- 1 NE 43 CIN 27
- 2 NE 30 CIN 20
- 3 NE 23 CIN 17
- 4 NE 30 CIN 27
- 5 NE 10 CIN 11
- 6 NE 19 CIN 24
- 7 NE 6 CIN 14
- 8 NE 9 CIN 20
- 9 NE 3 CIN 19
- 10 NE 6 CIN 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Patriots won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 79% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.12 | worse by 0.04 |
| Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.04 | worse by 0.07 |
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.04 | better by 0.06 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.19 | better by 0.12 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Patriots win 38% of them, Bengals 62%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Patriots by 17+ | 6.2% |
| Patriots by 9–16 | 12.1% |
| Patriots by 1–8 | 19.0% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 27.3% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 17.3% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 14.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Bullock, 34 yds made · 92% expected
- N. Folk, 40 yds made · 85% expected
- N. Folk, 46 yds made · 73% expected
- R. Bullock, 48 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Patriots 4 for 30 yards, Bengals 5 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:28 | False Start on the Bengals (Cethan Carter), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NE +0.8 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Patriots (Julian Edelman), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:07 | Defensive Holding on the Patriots (John Simon), 5 yards | +1% CIN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 6:00 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (B.W. Webb), 5 yards | +1% NE +0.4 pts |
| Q3 8:00 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bengals, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% NE +1.2 pts |
| Q4 7:14 | Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NE +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:50 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals (Carl Lawson), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% NE +3.0 pts |
| Q4 4:06 | Illegal Contact on the Patriots (Terrence Brooks), 5 yards | 0% CIN +0.2 pts |
| Q4 4:02 | Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 15 yards | 0% CIN +1.4 pts |
Patriots penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:52 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +9% NE | NE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:17 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +8% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 11:24 | The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% CIN | NE: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 1:45 | The Bengals fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% NE | CIN: End of half |
| 5 | Q2 0:54 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% CIN | NE: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 14:21 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% NE | CIN: Opp touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 11:23 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% NE | NE: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 7:32 | Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams | +17% NE | NE: Opp touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Auden Tate (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- John Jerry (CIN G), out · 0.4 pts
- Alex Redmond (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Jason McCourty (NE CB), out · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Patriots 99% · Bengals 1%
- Final margin
- Patriots by 21
- Luck in points
- 7.5 for the Patriots
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Patriots by 13.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Patriots 38% · Bengals 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · 
Patriots · 
Bengals
More from Week 15 2019
- Jets at Ravens BAL 42–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 21–13 · replay 78% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 23–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 24–21 · replay 70% for the winner
- Dolphins at Giants NYG 36–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- Eagles at Washington PHI 37–27 · replay 28% for the winner
- Seahawks at Panthers SEA 30–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Lions TB 38–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Browns at Cardinals ARI 38–24 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jaguars at Raiders JAX 20–16 · replay 25% for the winner
- Vikings at Chargers MIN 39–10 · replay 74% for the winner
- Falcons at 49ers ATL 29–22 · replay 67% for the winner
- Rams at Cowboys DAL 44–21 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bills at Steelers BUF 17–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Colts at Saints NO 34–7 · replay 92% for the winner