luckadjusted

Week 15 2019 · December 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Lions, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Lions 38–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:23 left): Return touchdown by the Buccaneers, worth 20 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38
Detroit Lions 17

December 15, 2019 · Ford Field · Closing line: Buccaneers −5.5

Luck index +4 Buccaneers about even · −4 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 10, Lions win 0.

  1. 1 TB 52 DET 15
  2. 2 TB 44 DET 13
  3. 3 TB 39 DET 14
  4. 4 TB 36 DET 14
  5. 5 TB 33 DET 14
  6. 6 TB 44 DET 27
  7. 7 TB 38 DET 24
  8. 8 TB 14 DET 3
  9. 9 TB 24 DET 17
  10. 10 TB 34 DET 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 96% of them, Lions 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+69.8%
Buccaneers by 9–1617.1%
Buccaneers by 1–88.3%
Level after regulation0.6%
Lions by 1–82.6%
Lions by 9–161.3%
Lions by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 21, without the luck Buccaneers by 20.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Gay, 46 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Gay, 54 yds missed · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 9 for 70 yards, Lions 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:37 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% DET +1.1 pts
Q1 13:12 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q1 11:52 Illegal Formation on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q1 7:25 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers (William Gholston), 5 yards +3% DET +1.0 pts
Q2 9:07 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.7 pts
Q2 1:21 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.2 pts
Q3 13:15 Illegal Blindside Block on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 15 yards +1% DET +1.2 pts
Q3 10:11 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.4 pts
Q4 14:50 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.7 pts
Q4 10:06 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% DET +1.0 pts
Q4 5:12 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% DET +3.9 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:47 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:19 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% TB DET: Punt
3 Q2 8:19 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:04 The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:40 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +5% TB TB: Missed field goal
6 Q4 8:04 M. Gay missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 9 of 10 from 45+ before +11% DET TB: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 5:23 Return touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams +20% TB TB: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 5:12 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 415 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +5% DET DET: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matthew Stafford (DET QB), out, replaced by d.blough · 5.8 pts
  • Marvin Jones (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • T.J. Hockenson (DET TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jarrad Davis (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • A'Shawn Robinson (DET DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Jones (DET LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Joe Dahl (DET G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Donovan Smith (TB T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out · 1.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 100% · Lions 0%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 21
Luck in points
0.4 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 20.6
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 96% · Lions 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · Buccaneers · Lions

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