Week 15 2019 · December 15, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Falcons at 49ers, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the 49ers 29–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The 49ers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the 49ers.
An off day for the 49ers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%. The numbers
Before kickoff the 49ers were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): Return touchdown by the Falcons, worth 45 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 29 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Falcons lucky · −33 49ers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 7, 49ers win 3.
- 1 ATL 38 SF 10
- 2 ATL 27 SF 7
- 3 ATL 30 SF 16
- 4 ATL 27 SF 17
- 5 ATL 30 SF 23
- 6 ATL 35 SF 31
- 7 ATL 15 SF 13
- 8 ATL 22 SF 24
- 9 ATL 9 SF 16
- 10 ATL 17 SF 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the 49ers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for the 49ers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.13 | worse by 0.05 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.17 | better by 0.15 |
| 49ers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.16 | worse by 0.14 |
| 49ers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.05 | worse by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 67% of them, 49ers 33%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 18.5% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 27.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 17.6% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 8.9% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 5.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Y. Koo, 43 yds made · 83% expected
- R. Gould, 22 yds made · 98% expected
- R. Gould, 46 yds made · 73% expected
- R. Gould, 43 yds made · 82% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Falcons 11 for 98 yards, 49ers 7 for 67 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:40 | Defensive Holding on the 49ers (D.J. Reed), 5 yards | +5% ATL +1.3 pts |
| Q1 9:59 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Austin Hooper), 10 yards | +5% SF +1.2 pts |
| Q1 1:46 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the 49ers (Kyle Juszczyk), 10 yards | +1% ATL +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:12 | Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Adrian Clayborn), 15 yards | +8% SF +3.1 pts |
| Q2 12:18 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SF +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:11 | Illegal Use of Hands on the 49ers (DeForest Buckner), 5 yards | +1% ATL +0.3 pts |
| Q2 3:51 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Christian Blake), 10 yards | +3% SF +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:36 | False Start on the 49ers (Emmanuel Sanders), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ATL +0.3 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Illegal Formation on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SF 0.0 pts |
| Q3 12:49 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons, 8 yards | +3% SF +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:07 | Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SF +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:14 | Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +4% SF +1.7 pts |
| Q3 6:19 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:33 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons (Russell Gage), 10 yards | +4% SF +1.0 pts |
| Q3 2:56 | Illegal Formation on the Falcons (Qadree Ollison), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SF +0.5 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Christian Blake), 10 yards | +5% SF +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:18 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the 49ers (DeForest Buckner), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:28 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Jimmie Ward), 32 yards | +11% ATL +3.5 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:12 | Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Adrian Clayborn), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 360 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 | +8% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 5:20 | R. Gould made 46-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 1 of 7 from 45+ before | +8% SF | SF: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 0:44 | The 49ers fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% ATL | SF: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 11:00 | The Falcons fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% SF | ATL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 5:28 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Jimmie Ward), 32 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 689 snaps before, position avg 1 per 465 | +11% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 1:52 | R. Gould made 43-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him | +11% ATL | SF: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:05 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +30% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:02 | The Falcons’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe 49ers fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams | +45% ATL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Richard Sherman (SF CB), out · 1.6 pts
- Weston Richburg (SF C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- K'Waun Williams (SF CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Jaquiski Tartt (SF SS), out · 0.4 pts
- Kwon Alexander (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Desmond Trufant (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Calvin Ridley (ATL WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- James Carpenter (ATL G), out · 0.3 pts
- Jamon Brown (ATL G), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 87% · 49ers 13%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for the 49ers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 7.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 67% · 49ers 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · 
Falcons · 
49ers
More from Week 15 2019
- Jets at Ravens BAL 42–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 21–13 · replay 78% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 23–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 24–21 · replay 70% for the winner
- Dolphins at Giants NYG 36–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- Patriots at Bengals NE 34–13 · replay 38% for the winner
- Eagles at Washington PHI 37–27 · replay 28% for the winner
- Seahawks at Panthers SEA 30–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Lions TB 38–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Browns at Cardinals ARI 38–24 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jaguars at Raiders JAX 20–16 · replay 25% for the winner
- Vikings at Chargers MIN 39–10 · replay 74% for the winner
- Rams at Cowboys DAL 44–21 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bills at Steelers BUF 17–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Colts at Saints NO 34–7 · replay 92% for the winner