luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · December 12, 2019–December 16

Week 15 2019: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Jaguars beat the Raiders 20–16 in a game they win 25% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 15 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 5 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Falcons 29–22 @ 49ers 22% 67% Deserved
Jaguars 20–16 @ Raiders 30% 25% Lucky
Texans 24–21 @ Titans 41% 70% Deserved
Cardinals 38–24 vs Browns 41% 86% Deserved
Cowboys 44–21 vs Rams 47% 92% Deserved
Bills 17–10 @ Steelers 47% 73% Deserved

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jaguars W 20–16 @ Raiders 25% +75
2 Eagles W 37–27 @ Washington 28% +72
3 Patriots W 34–13 @ Bengals 38% +62
4 Falcons W 29–22 @ 49ers 67% +33
5 Texans W 24–21 @ Titans 70% +30
6 Bills W 17–10 @ Steelers 73% +27
7 Vikings W 39–10 @ Chargers 74% +26
8 Packers W 21–13 vs Bears 78% +22
9 Seahawks W 30–24 @ Panthers 79% +21
10 Cardinals W 38–24 vs Browns 86% +14
11 Cowboys W 44–21 vs Rams 92% +8
12 Saints W 34–7 vs Colts 92% +8
13 Giants W 36–20 vs Dolphins 93% +7
14 Buccaneers W 38–17 @ Lions 96% +4
15 Chiefs W 23–3 vs Broncos 98% +2
16 Ravens W 42–21 vs Jets 98% +2
17 Jets L 21–42 @ Ravens 2% −2
18 Broncos L 3–23 @ Chiefs 2% −2
19 Lions L 17–38 vs Buccaneers 4% −4
20 Dolphins L 20–36 @ Giants 7% −7
21 Colts L 7–34 @ Saints 8% −8
22 Rams L 21–44 @ Cowboys 8% −8
23 Browns L 24–38 @ Cardinals 14% −14
24 Panthers L 24–30 vs Seahawks 21% −21
25 Bears L 13–21 @ Packers 22% −22
26 Chargers L 10–39 vs Vikings 26% −26
27 Steelers L 10–17 vs Bills 27% −27
28 Titans L 21–24 vs Texans 30% −30
29 49ers L 22–29 vs Falcons 33% −33
30 Bengals L 13–34 vs Patriots 62% −62
31 Washington L 27–37 vs Eagles 72% −72
32 Raiders L 16–20 vs Jaguars 75% −75