2019 season · final

New York Giants, 2019: game by game

The Giants went 4–12 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.2 wins. Luck cost them 2.2: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.

Every game

How often the Giants win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Cowboys	L 17–35	8%	−8
Week 2	vs Bills	L 14–28	45%	−45
Week 3	@ Buccaneers	W 32–31	17%	+83
Week 4	vs Washington	W 24–3	72%	+28
Week 5	vs Vikings	L 10–28	51%	−51
Week 6	@ Patriots	L 14–35	36%	−36
Week 7	vs Cardinals	L 21–27	13%	−13
Week 8	@ Lions	L 26–31	50%	−50
Week 9	vs Cowboys	L 18–37	4%	−4
Week 10	@ Jets	L 27–34	23%	−23
Week 12	@ Bears	L 14–19	39%	−39
Week 13	vs Packers	L 13–31	42%	−42
Week 14	@ Eagles	L 17–23	12%	−12
Week 15	vs Dolphins	W 36–20	93%	+7
Week 16	@ Washington	W 41–35	84%	+16
Week 17	vs Eagles	L 17–34	34%	−34

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −8 @ DAL

Wk 2 −45 vs BUF

Wk 3 +83 @ TB

Wk 4 +28 vs WAS

Wk 5 −51 vs MIN

Wk 6 −36 @ NE

Wk 7 −13 vs ARI

Wk 8 −50 @ DET

Wk 9 −4 vs DAL

Wk 10 −23 @ NYJ

Wk 12 −39 @ CHI

Wk 13 −42 vs GB

Wk 14 −12 @ PHI

Wk 15 +7 vs MIA

Wk 16 +16 @ WAS

Wk 17 −34 vs PHI

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Giants’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.47	+14.4
Injuries	+0.07	+1.4
Kicks	+0.07	−10.4
Fumble bounces	−0.04	0.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.25	−2.6