luckadjusted

Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Giants, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 34–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:12 left): Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 26 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 34
New York Giants 17

December 29, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −4

Luck index +34 Eagles lucky · −34 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 7, Giants win 3.

  1. 1 PHI 41 NYG 14
  2. 2 PHI 37 NYG 17
  3. 3 PHI 34 NYG 19
  4. 4 PHI 34 NYG 23
  5. 5 PHI 24 NYG 16
  6. 6 PHI 21 NYG 17
  7. 7 PHI 42 NYG 40
  8. 8 PHI 23 NYG 26
  9. 9 PHI 20 NYG 29
  10. 10 PHI 7 NYG 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 66% of them, Giants 34%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+22.1%
Eagles by 9–1618.0%
Eagles by 1–823.6%
Level after regulation2.3%
Giants by 1–816.7%
Giants by 9–169.8%
Giants by 17+7.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to the Giants: the final margin was Eagles by 17, without the luck Eagles by 23.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Rosas, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Elliott, 50 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 7 for 55 yards, Giants 4 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:44 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards +2% NYG +0.8 pts
Q1 9:39 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Kaden Smith), 10 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q1 1:47 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles, 10 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 14:11 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +4% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 12:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants, 13 yards +3% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 11:08 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.3 pts
Q2 7:04 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Rasul Douglas), 15 yards +7% NYG +1.7 pts
Q3 13:14 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.4 pts
Q3 9:41 Horse Collar Tackle on the Giants, 15 yards +5% PHI +1.8 pts
Q3 0:12 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +26% NYG +4.5 pts
Q4 13:58 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.6 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:22 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% NYG PHI: Field goal
2 Q1 6:01 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +12% PHI PHI: Field goal
3 Q2 12:34 The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PHI PHI: Punt
4 Q3 11:13 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% PHI NYG: Touchdown
5 Q3 10:29 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +11% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:38 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:12 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +26% NYG NYG: Turnover
8 Q4 14:03 J. Elliott made 50-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 2 of 6 from 45+ before +13% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Evan Engram (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Mike Remmers (NYG T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Sam Beal (NYG CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Corey Ballentine (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Zach Ertz (PHI TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ronald Darby (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Nelson Agholor (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jalen Mills (PHI CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kamu Grugier-Hill (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Eagles by 17
Luck in points
6.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 23.4
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 66% · Giants 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · Eagles · Giants

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