luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · December 29, 2019

Week 17 2019: who deserved to win

7 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Vikings 21–19 in a game they win 9% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 17 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Dolphins 27–24 @ Patriots 10% 43% Coin flip
Jaguars 38–20 vs Colts 36% 59% Coin flip
Bengals 33–23 vs Browns 43% 49% Coin flip
Ravens 28–10 vs Steelers 44% 96% Deserved
Falcons 28–22 @ Buccaneers 47% 14% Lucky

Week 17 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 21–19 @ Vikings 9% +91
2 Broncos W 16–15 vs Raiders 13% +87
3 Falcons W 28–22 @ Buccaneers 14% +86
4 Jets W 13–6 @ Bills 38% +62
5 Packers W 23–20 @ Lions 43% +57
6 Dolphins W 27–24 @ Patriots 43% +57
7 Bengals W 33–23 vs Browns 49% +51
8 Jaguars W 38–20 vs Colts 59% +41
9 Rams W 31–24 vs Cardinals 62% +38
10 Eagles W 34–17 @ Giants 66% +34
11 49ers W 26–21 @ Seahawks 72% +28
12 Chiefs W 31–21 vs Chargers 80% +20
13 Titans W 35–14 @ Texans 87% +13
14 Saints W 42–10 @ Panthers 95% +5
15 Cowboys W 47–16 vs Washington 96% +4
16 Ravens W 28–10 vs Steelers 96% +4
17 Steelers L 10–28 @ Ravens 4% −4
18 Washington L 16–47 @ Cowboys 4% −4
19 Panthers L 10–42 vs Saints 5% −5
20 Texans L 14–35 vs Titans 13% −13
21 Chargers L 21–31 @ Chiefs 20% −20
22 Seahawks L 21–26 vs 49ers 28% −28
23 Giants L 17–34 vs Eagles 34% −34
24 Cardinals L 24–31 @ Rams 38% −38
25 Colts L 20–38 @ Jaguars 41% −41
26 Browns L 23–33 @ Bengals 51% −51
27 Patriots L 24–27 vs Dolphins 57% −57
28 Lions L 20–23 vs Packers 57% −57
29 Bills L 6–13 vs Jets 62% −62
30 Buccaneers L 22–28 vs Falcons 86% −86
31 Raiders L 15–16 @ Broncos 87% −87
32 Vikings L 19–21 vs Bears 91% −91