luckadjusted

Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Jaguars, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Colts 38–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jaguars win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Colts were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:41 left): the Colts were stopped on 3rd & 12, worth 26 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 20
Jacksonville Jaguars 38

December 29, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Colts −5

Luck index +41 Jaguars lucky · −41 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 4, Jaguars win 6.

  1. 1 IND 24 JAX 6
  2. 2 IND 20 JAX 10
  3. 3 IND 19 JAX 13
  4. 4 IND 14 JAX 12
  5. 5 IND 24 JAX 26
  6. 6 IND 14 JAX 18
  7. 7 IND 17 JAX 24
  8. 8 IND 7 JAX 19
  9. 9 IND 10 JAX 26
  10. 10 IND 24 JAX 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 41% of them, Jaguars 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+6.7%
Colts by 9–1613.2%
Colts by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation3.3%
Jaguars by 1–828.2%
Jaguars by 9–1616.3%
Jaguars by 17+13.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.8 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 18, without the luck Jaguars by 7.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Lambo, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Lambo, 53 yds made · 66% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Lambo, 56 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 4 for 36 yards, Jaguars 3 for 27 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:55 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +4% JAX +1.5 pts
Q1 4:56 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Yannick Ngakoue), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +1.1 pts
Q1 1:55 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Ronnie Harrison), 12 yards +5% IND +1.2 pts
Q3 9:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 20 yards +8% JAX +2.0 pts
Q3 8:33 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Tyquan Lewis), 1 yard 0% JAX +0.1 pts
Q3 3:27 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% IND +2.0 pts
Q4 10:42 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Colts (Marvell Tell III), 5 yards +3% JAX +0.5 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:08 C. McLaughlin made 20-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +8% JAX IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:35 The Colts converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +12% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:17 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +17% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q3 9:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 934 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:27 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% IND IND: Punt
6 Q4 13:21 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% JAX JAX: Punt
7 Q4 11:30 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% IND JAX: Punt
8 Q4 9:41 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Colts fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +26% JAX IND: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • A.J. Bouye (JAX CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Myles Jack (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Leonard Fournette (JAX RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Quincy Williams (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick O'Leary (JAX TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Najee Goode (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kenny Moore (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Khari Willis (IND SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Adam Vinatieri (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denico Autry (IND DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Parris Campbell (IND WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 15% · Jaguars 85%

Final margin
Jaguars by 18
Luck in points
10.8 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 7.2
Replay with same day's form
Colts 41% · Jaguars 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · Colts · Jaguars

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