luckadjusted

Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Cowboys, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat Washington 47–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:23 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 9, worth 9 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Washington Redskins 16
Dallas Cowboys 47

December 29, 2019 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −13

Luck index +4 Cowboys about even · −4 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 0, Cowboys win 10.

  1. 1 WAS 22 DAL 24
  2. 2 WAS 20 DAL 27
  3. 3 WAS 28 DAL 38
  4. 4 WAS 41 DAL 53
  5. 5 WAS 16 DAL 33
  6. 6 WAS 7 DAL 27
  7. 7 WAS 13 DAL 37
  8. 8 WAS 9 DAL 37
  9. 9 WAS 0 DAL 33
  10. 10 WAS 6 DAL 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 4% of them, Cowboys 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+0.5%
Washington by 9–160.9%
Washington by 1–82.6%
Level after regulation0.8%
Cowboys by 1–88.3%
Cowboys by 9–1615.9%
Cowboys by 17+71.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 31, without the luck Cowboys by 28.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Forbath, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Forbath, 47 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • K. Forbath, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • K. Forbath, 40 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 2 for 10 yards, Cowboys 10 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:02 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% WAS +2.4 pts
Q1 9:20 Illegal Shift on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% WAS +1.4 pts
Q1 5:15 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Maliek Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q1 2:40 Ineligible Downfield Pass on Washington, 5 yards +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 13:09 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 5:59 False Start on the Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +1.0 pts
Q2 5:12 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 2:00 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% WAS +2.7 pts
Q2 0:22 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DAL +1.1 pts
Q3 0:01 False Start on Washington (Steven Sims), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.7 pts
Q4 12:46 False Start on the Cowboys (Christian Covington), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q4 11:16 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 6 yards 0% WAS +0.5 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:02 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 890 snaps before, position avg 1 per 654 +5% WAS WAS: Turnover
2 Q1 12:41 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% DAL WAS: Turnover
3 Q1 11:23 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% WAS DAL: Field goal
4 Q1 10:46 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% DAL DAL: Field goal
5 Q1 6:54 Washington fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DAL WAS: Turnover on downs
6 Q1 5:18 K. Forbath made 47-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 3 of 3 from 45+ before +5% DAL DAL: Turnover
7 Q2 14:43 The Cowboys fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% WAS DAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 12:23 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Byron Jones (DAL CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Connor Williams (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Xavier Su'a-Filo (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Terry McLaurin (WAS WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS SS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Montae Nicholson (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ryan Kerrigan (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Fabian Moreau (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Quinn (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jimmy Moreland (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 31
Luck in points
2.9 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 28.1
Replay with same day's form
Washington 4% · Cowboys 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · Washington · Cowboys

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