luckadjusted

Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Panthers, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Panthers 42–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 84% favorites.

Final

New Orleans Saints 42
Carolina Panthers 10

December 29, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Saints −13.5

Luck index +5 Saints about even · −5 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 9, Panthers win 1.

  1. 1 NO 40 CAR 5
  2. 2 NO 48 CAR 20
  3. 3 NO 27 CAR 3
  4. 4 NO 30 CAR 10
  5. 5 NO 36 CAR 19
  6. 6 NO 30 CAR 16
  7. 7 NO 29 CAR 17
  8. 8 NO 24 CAR 17
  9. 9 NO 30 CAR 27
  10. 10 NO 19 CAR 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 95% of them, Panthers 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+67.2%
Saints by 9–1618.4%
Saints by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation0.9%
Panthers by 1–83.6%
Panthers by 9–161.0%
Panthers by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.5 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 32, without the luck Saints by 24.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Saints 3 for 44 yards, Panthers 5 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (James Bradberry), 24 yards +6% NO +2.7 pts
Q2 13:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 29 yards +4% CAR +2.3 pts
Q2 7:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Tre Boston), 10 yards 0% NO +1.1 pts
Q2 6:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (James Bradberry), 5 yards +1% NO +1.6 pts
Q2 5:53 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CAR +1.5 pts
Q3 15:00 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Saints (P.J. Williams), 15 yards 0% CAR +1.4 pts
Q3 13:14 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 0 yards 0% CAR 0.0 pts
Q3 8:27 Illegal Touch Kick on the Panthers, 5 yards 0% NO +0.5 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:12 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +2% NO CAR: Punt
2 Q1 8:16 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +2% NO CAR: Punt
3 Q1 4:04 The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (James Bradberry), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1044 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 29 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 790 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +4% CAR CAR: Turnover
6 Q2 13:11 The Panthers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% NO CAR: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 12:22 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +1% CAR NO: Punt
8 Q2 12:10 Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +6% NO NO: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • D.J. Moore (CAR WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dontari Poe (CAR NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Little (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Van Roten (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Eli Apple (NO CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Vonn Bell (NO SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Marcus Williams (NO FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Saints by 32
Luck in points
7.5 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 24.5
Replay with same day's form
Saints 95% · Panthers 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · Saints · Panthers

More from Week 17 2019