2019 season · final

Pittsburgh Steelers, 2019: game by game

The Steelers went 8–8 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck added 1.4: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.

Every game

How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Patriots	L 3–33	7%	−7
Week 2	vs Seahawks	L 26–28	45%	−45
Week 3	@ 49ers	L 20–24	13%	−13
Week 4	vs Bengals	W 27–3	78%	+22
Week 5	vs Ravens	L 23–26	28%	−28
Week 6	@ Chargers	W 24–17	17%	+83
Week 8	vs Dolphins	W 27–14	92%	+8
Week 9	vs Colts	W 26–24	25%	+75
Week 10	vs Rams	W 17–12	22%	+78
Week 11	@ Browns	L 7–21	44%	−44
Week 12	@ Bengals	W 16–10	95%	+5
Week 13	vs Browns	W 20–13	77%	+23
Week 14	@ Cardinals	W 23–17	41%	+59
Week 15	vs Bills	L 10–17	27%	−27
Week 16	@ Jets	L 10–16	49%	−49
Week 17	@ Ravens	L 10–28	4%	−4

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −7 @ NE

Wk 2 −45 vs SEA

Wk 3 −13 @ SF

Wk 4 +22 vs CIN

Wk 5 −28 vs BAL

Wk 6 +83 @ LAC

Wk 8 +8 vs MIA

Wk 9 +75 vs IND

Wk 10 +78 vs LA

Wk 11 −44 @ CLE

Wk 12 +5 @ CIN

Wk 13 +23 vs CLE

Wk 14 +59 @ ARI

Wk 15 −27 vs BUF

Wk 16 −49 @ NYJ

Wk 17 −4 @ BAL

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+1.01	+29.6
Fumble bounces	+0.71	+23.6
Injuries	+0.42	+14.5
Kicks	+0.32	+14.6
Rest	−0.03	−0.4
3rd & 4th downs	−0.23	−9.9