luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 14, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Browns, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Steelers 21–7, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Browns win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Browns were 59% favorites.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 7
Cleveland Browns 21

November 14, 2019 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −3

Luck index +44 Browns lucky · −44 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 4, Browns win 6.

  1. 1 PIT 40 CLE 19
  2. 2 PIT 30 CLE 17
  3. 3 PIT 31 CLE 24
  4. 4 PIT 28 CLE 26
  5. 5 PIT 14 CLE 16
  6. 6 PIT 10 CLE 16
  7. 7 PIT 24 CLE 34
  8. 8 PIT 16 CLE 30
  9. 9 PIT 22 CLE 41
  10. 10 PIT 12 CLE 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 44% of them, Browns 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+10.7%
Steelers by 9–1613.5%
Steelers by 1–817.4%
Level after regulation2.8%
Browns by 1–823.4%
Browns by 9–1616.2%
Browns by 17+16.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.7 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Browns by 14, without the luck Browns by 20.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 44 yds missed · 77% expected
  • A. Seibert, 45 yds missed · 77% expected
  • A. Seibert, 50 yds missed · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 6 for 41 yards, Browns 8 for 121 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:21 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +3% CLE +1.5 pts
Q1 9:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 33 yards +7% PIT +3.5 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +3% CLE +1.2 pts
Q2 10:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joe Haden), 6 yards +3% CLE +2.6 pts
Q2 9:14 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Chad Thomas), 15 yards +2% PIT +1.9 pts
Q2 8:28 Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +1.0 pts
Q2 5:39 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +1% PIT +0.9 pts
Q3 11:23 Illegal Touch Kick on the Browns, 0 yards 0% PIT 0.0 pts
Q3 8:11 Disqualification on the Browns (Damarious Randall), 15 yards +2% PIT +1.1 pts
Q3 6:22 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +1.2 pts
Q3 6:00 Illegal Contact on the Browns (Juston Burris), 5 yards +1% PIT +1.8 pts
Q3 5:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greedy Williams), 38 yards +5% PIT +2.7 pts
Q4 4:30 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.6 pts
Q4 1:47 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.6 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:11 The Browns converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 329 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +7% PIT PIT: Missed field goal
3 Q1 7:52 C. Boswell missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him +7% CLE PIT: Punt
4 Q3 5:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greedy Williams), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 294 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +5% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:52 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
6 Q3 1:42 The Browns converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
7 Q4 13:35 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +7% CLE PIT: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 12:11 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% PIT CLE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Olivier Vernon (CLE DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Eric Murray (CLE FS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 0% · Browns 100%

Final margin
Browns by 14
Luck in points
6.7 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 20.7
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 44% · Browns 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Steelers · Browns

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