luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Panthers, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Panthers 29–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:18 left): Return touchdown by the Falcons, worth 15 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 29
Carolina Panthers 3

November 17, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −3.5

Luck index +24 Falcons about even · −24 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 ATL 49 CAR 17
  2. 2 ATL 40 CAR 17
  3. 3 ATL 20 CAR 3
  4. 4 ATL 27 CAR 13
  5. 5 ATL 27 CAR 16
  6. 6 ATL 18 CAR 10
  7. 7 ATL 17 CAR 12
  8. 8 ATL 24 CAR 22
  9. 9 ATL 13 CAR 16
  10. 10 ATL 16 CAR 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 76% of them, Panthers 24%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+29.2%
Falcons by 9–1619.7%
Falcons by 1–826.7%
Level after regulation2.3%
Panthers by 1–813.1%
Panthers by 9–166.8%
Panthers by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.8 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 26, without the luck Falcons by 21.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • Y. Koo, 38 yds missed · 89% expected
  • Y. Koo, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 3 for 20 yards, Panthers 8 for 68 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:43 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards +1% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 5:15 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q2 4:56 Chop Block on the Panthers, 13 yards, wiping out the play +3% ATL +2.0 pts
Q2 2:35 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% CAR +1.2 pts
Q2 1:49 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers, 1 yard +1% ATL +0.5 pts
Q2 1:34 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers (Alex Armah), 9 yards +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q3 14:24 Illegal Shift on the Panthers (Jarius Wright), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% ATL +1.3 pts
Q3 13:18 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +4% ATL +1.8 pts
Q3 6:40 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% ATL +1.8 pts
Q4 7:18 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CAR +3.0 pts
Q4 5:10 Intentional Grounding on the Panthers, 15 yards 0% ATL +1.4 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:16 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% ATL ATL: Field goal
2 Q1 10:55 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% ATL CAR: Punt
3 Q1 7:21 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% CAR ATL: Missed field goal
4 Q1 6:39 Y. Koo missed 38-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +7% CAR ATL: Punt
5 Q1 5:51 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% ATL CAR: Punt
6 Q1 3:47 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% CAR ATL: Punt
7 Q1 1:18 Return touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +15% ATL ATL: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 12:07 The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +9% CAR CAR: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ross Cockrell (CAR CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dennis Daley (CAR G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Austin Hooper (ATL TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Devonta Freeman (ATL RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Keanu Neal (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kemal Ishmael (ATL SS), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Falcons by 26
Luck in points
4.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 21.2
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 76% · Panthers 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Falcons · Panthers

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