luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at 49ers, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Cardinals 36–26, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 31 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:41 left): the 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 30 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 26
San Francisco 49ers 36

November 17, 2019 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −10

Luck index +8 49ers about even · −8 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, 49ers win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 34 SF 27
  2. 2 ARI 28 SF 30
  3. 3 ARI 17 SF 22
  4. 4 ARI 13 SF 22
  5. 5 ARI 10 SF 22
  6. 6 ARI 10 SF 24
  7. 7 ARI 17 SF 34
  8. 8 ARI 17 SF 38
  9. 9 ARI 23 SF 48
  10. 10 ARI 10 SF 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 8% of them, 49ers 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.3%
Cardinals by 9–161.6%
Cardinals by 1–85.3%
Level after regulation0.9%
49ers by 1–811.6%
49ers by 9–1621.9%
49ers by 17+58.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.5 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was 49ers by 10, without the luck 49ers by 17.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 10 for 104 yards, 49ers 10 for 127 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Richard Sherman), 41 yards +17% ARI +4.6 pts
Q1 11:35 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Christian Kirk), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% SF +2.9 pts
Q1 7:44 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SF +0.8 pts
Q1 4:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Richard Sherman), 13 yards +3% ARI +1.1 pts
Q1 3:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson), 28 yards +4% SF +1.6 pts
Q2 7:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Richard Sherman), 18 yards +7% ARI +2.6 pts
Q2 4:46 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Chandler Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.3 pts
Q2 4:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Haason Reddick), 3 yards +1% SF +0.4 pts
Q2 2:21 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SF +0.5 pts
Q2 2:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Michael Dogbe), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.5 pts
Q2 0:45 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +16% ARI +4.8 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the 49ers, 10 yards +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q3 14:52 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals, 15 yards +4% SF +1.8 pts
Q3 14:18 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.7 pts
Q3 12:44 Illegal Shift on the 49ers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% ARI +2.0 pts
Q3 9:35 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Deebo Samuel), 10 yards +3% ARI +0.7 pts
Q3 7:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Joe Walker), 23 yards +4% SF +1.6 pts
Q3 6:31 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% ARI +2.0 pts
Q4 10:48 Illegal Shift on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +13% SF +2.0 pts
Q4 7:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the 49ers (Damontre Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap +7% ARI +0.7 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Richard Sherman), 41 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 496 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +17% ARI ARI: Field goal
2 Q1 4:54 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:45 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% ARI ARI: Punt
4 Q3 5:32 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +25% ARI SF: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:30 The 49ers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +13% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:48 Illegal Shift on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +13% SF SF: Turnover
7 Q4 4:41 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +30% ARI SF: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:05 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% SF ARI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • George Kittle (SF TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Joe Staley (SF T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Robbie Gould (SF K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Damiere Byrd (ARI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tramaine Brock (ARI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Mills (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonathan Bullard (ARI DE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 4% · 49ers 96%

Final margin
49ers by 10
Luck in points
7.5 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 17.5
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 8% · 49ers 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Cardinals · 49ers

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