luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Dolphins, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Dolphins 37–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:23 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 9 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Buffalo Bills 37
Miami Dolphins 20

November 17, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Bills −7

Luck index +4 Bills about even · −4 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 10, Dolphins win 0.

  1. 1 BUF 42 MIA 7
  2. 2 BUF 30 MIA 3
  3. 3 BUF 27 MIA 3
  4. 4 BUF 26 MIA 5
  5. 5 BUF 25 MIA 7
  6. 6 BUF 26 MIA 10
  7. 7 BUF 29 MIA 16
  8. 8 BUF 23 MIA 13
  9. 9 BUF 19 MIA 12
  10. 10 BUF 19 MIA 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 96% of them, Dolphins 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+70.2%
Bills by 9–1617.0%
Bills by 1–88.3%
Level after regulation0.7%
Dolphins by 1–83.0%
Dolphins by 9–160.8%
Dolphins by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.6 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 17, without the luck Bills by 6.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Hauschka, 51 yds made · 63% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 21 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 5 for 50 yards, Dolphins 6 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:04 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins (Clive Walford), 9 yards +1% BUF +0.8 pts
Q1 8:50 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +1.2 pts
Q1 2:27 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 5 yards +1% MIA +0.4 pts
Q2 13:09 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Dolphins (Clive Walford), 10 yards +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 13:02 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bills (Shaq Lawson), 15 yards +4% MIA +1.6 pts
Q2 9:32 False Start on the Bills (Tyler Kroft), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.7 pts
Q2 1:09 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF 0.0 pts
Q3 13:35 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% BUF +2.8 pts
Q3 2:47 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Corey Liuget), 15 yards 0% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 14:05 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% MIA +2.0 pts
Q4 8:33 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins, 5 yards 0% BUF +0.6 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:09 S. Hauschka made 51-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before +5% BUF BUF: Field goal
2 Q1 6:50 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% BUF BUF: Field goal
3 Q1 4:39 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% MIA BUF: Field goal
4 Q1 3:07 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +8% MIA MIA: Punt
5 Q2 7:46 S. Hauschka made 21-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +6% MIA BUF: Punt
6 Q2 5:04 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:23 Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +9% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q3 13:35 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Taco Charlton (MIA DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Shaq Calhoun (MIA G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Danny Isidora (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Raekwon McMillan (MIA LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Duke Williams (BUF WR), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 92% · Dolphins 8%

Final margin
Bills by 17
Luck in points
10.6 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Bills 96% · Dolphins 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Bills · Dolphins

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