Week 11 2019 · November 18, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Chiefs vs Chargers, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?
The Chiefs beat the Chargers 24–17, but the Chargers played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Chiefs.
Before kickoff the Chiefs were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:01 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 17 points of win probability to the Chiefs.
Final
 Kansas City Chiefs | 24 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +64 Chiefs very lucky · −64 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chiefs win 4, Chargers win 6.
- 1 KC 41 LAC 20
- 2 KC 23 LAC 10
- 3 KC 24 LAC 17
- 4 KC 25 LAC 23
- 5 KC 36 LAC 38
- 6 KC 7 LAC 13
- 7 KC 16 LAC 25
- 8 KC 13 LAC 26
- 9 KC 9 LAC 27
- 10 KC 20 LAC 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chiefs win 36% of them, Chargers 64%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chiefs by 17+ | 7.0% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 10.9% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 17.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 24.3% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 18.2% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 20.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Badgley, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- M. Badgley, 40 yds missed · 87% expected
- M. Badgley, 26 yds made · 97% expected
- H. Butker, 41 yds made · 85% expected
- M. Badgley, 49 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Chiefs 8 for 102 yards, Chargers 9 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:29 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Damien Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% LAC +2.3 pts |
| Q1 4:41 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 15 yards | +1% LAC +1.2 pts |
| Q2 13:29 | Illegal Formation on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% LAC +1.2 pts |
| Q2 10:13 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +2% KC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% KC +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:34 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers, 10 yards | +7% KC +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +4% KC +0.9 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards | +4% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:02 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers (Melvin Ingram), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +13% KC +3.7 pts |
| Q3 8:32 | Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Chargers (Jatavis Brown), 5 yards | +1% KC +0.4 pts |
| Q3 6:55 | Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Melvin Ingram), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% LAC +0.3 pts |
| Q3 4:56 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Morris Claiborne), 25 yards | +2% LAC +1.6 pts |
| Q3 2:51 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 27 yards | +6% LAC +2.2 pts |
| Q4 11:49 | Illegal Shift on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% LAC +1.8 pts |
| Q4 11:19 | Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Isaac Rochell), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KC +0.2 pts |
| Q4 1:05 | Illegal Contact on the Chiefs (Rashad Fenton), 5 yards | +1% LAC +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:52 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KC +0.1 pts |
Chiefs penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:29 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Damien Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 297 snaps before, position avg 1 per 654 | +7% LAC | LAC: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 3:14 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% KC | KC: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 9:01 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +17% KC | LAC: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:01 | M. Badgley made 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +11% LAC | LAC: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 14:02 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers (Melvin Ingram), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 356 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 | +13% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 12:34 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +7% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 10:13 | The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:52 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Chargers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% LAC | LAC: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Sam Tevi (LAC T), out · 1.1 pts
- Russell Okung (LAC T), out · 0.7 pts
- Mike Pouncey (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Dontrelle Inman (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Travis Benjamin (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Sean Culkin (LAC TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Kendall Fuller (KC CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Emmanuel Ogbah (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Alex Okafor (KC DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Martinas Rankin (KC T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chiefs 85% · Chargers 15%
- Final margin
- Chiefs by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chiefs by 7.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Chiefs 36% · Chargers 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · 
Chiefs · 
Chargers
More from Week 11 2019
- Steelers at Browns CLE 21–7 · replay 56% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 29–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 37–20 · replay 96% for the winner
- Cowboys at Lions DAL 35–27 · replay 93% for the winner
- Broncos at Vikings MIN 27–23 · replay 63% for the winner
- Texans at Ravens BAL 41–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 33–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers NO 34–17 · replay 61% for the winner
- Jets at Washington NYJ 34–17 · replay 87% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers SF 36–26 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bengals at Raiders OAK 17–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Patriots at Eagles NE 17–10 · replay 50% for the winner
- Bears at Rams LA 17–7 · replay 80% for the winner