luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Lions, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Lions 35–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:46 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 9, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 35
Detroit Lions 27

November 17, 2019 · Ford Field · Closing line: Cowboys −7.5

Luck index +7 Cowboys about even · −7 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Lions win 1.

  1. 1 DAL 52 DET 14
  2. 2 DAL 45 DET 17
  3. 3 DAL 40 DET 17
  4. 4 DAL 41 DET 21
  5. 5 DAL 40 DET 24
  6. 6 DAL 36 DET 24
  7. 7 DAL 47 DET 38
  8. 8 DAL 28 DET 23
  9. 9 DAL 36 DET 34
  10. 10 DAL 16 DET 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 93% of them, Lions 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+56.7%
Cowboys by 9–1621.2%
Cowboys by 1–815.0%
Level after regulation0.6%
Lions by 1–84.5%
Lions by 9–161.5%
Lions by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.1 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 8, without the luck Lions by 5.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Maher, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 6 for 45 yards, Lions 11 for 89 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:37 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Lions, 10 yards +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q1 10:54 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.8 pts
Q1 5:45 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 12:43 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Josh Jones), 10 yards +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 10:30 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.2 pts
Q2 4:37 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 4:30 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 7 yards +5% DAL +1.2 pts
Q2 0:33 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Lions (Will Harris), 15 yards +4% DAL +1.6 pts
Q2 0:27 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Lions (A'Shawn Robinson), 15 yards +5% DAL +1.4 pts
Q2 0:26 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 7 yards, wiping out the play +10% DAL +2.8 pts
Q3 14:26 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.7 pts
Q3 3:30 False Start on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 14:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +10% DET +2.8 pts
Q4 9:11 Illegal Contact on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% DAL +0.3 pts
Q4 3:13 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Darian Thompson), 15 yards +4% DET +1.9 pts
Q4 3:01 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Lions, 5 yards 0% DAL +0.8 pts
Q4 2:07 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.2 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:04 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +8% DET DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 0:11 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:19 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:46 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +16% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:26 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q3 10:35 The Lions converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% DET DET: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:46 The Lions converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +6% DET DET: Punt
8 Q4 14:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% DET DET: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matthew Stafford (DET QB), out, replaced by j.driskel · 6.3 pts
  • Romeo Okwara (DET DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kerryon Johnson (DET RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Connor Williams (DAL G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jeff Heath (DAL SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 55% · Lions 45%

Final margin
Cowboys by 8
Luck in points
13.1 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 93% · Lions 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Cowboys · Lions

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