Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Steelers at 49ers, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Steelers 24–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:53 left): the 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 45 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 20 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 49ers about even · −13 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 1, 49ers win 9.
- 1 PIT 28 SF 20
- 2 PIT 19 SF 22
- 3 PIT 23 SF 29
- 4 PIT 17 SF 26
- 5 PIT 13 SF 24
- 6 PIT 6 SF 20
- 7 PIT 10 SF 26
- 8 PIT 6 SF 27
- 9 PIT 3 SF 27
- 10 PIT 6 SF 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 13% of them, 49ers 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 1.1% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 7.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 17.2% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 20.7% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 48.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 46 yds made · 80% expected
- C. Boswell, 26 yds made · 98% expected
- R. Gould, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Steelers 6 for 42 yards, 49ers 5 for 71 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 12:29 | Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 12 yards | +5% SF +1.6 pts |
| Q2 12:02 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Javon Hargrave), 5 yards | +2% SF +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:48 | Illegal Shift on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SF +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:30 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards | +4% PIT +1.2 pts |
| Q3 13:56 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% SF +1.4 pts |
| Q4 13:33 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards | +4% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q4 13:05 | Illegal Blindside Block on the 49ers, 9 yards | +3% PIT +1.1 pts |
| Q4 11:28 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +6% SF +0.9 pts |
| Q4 10:34 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Jason Verrett), 32 yards | +8% PIT +2.1 pts |
| Q4 2:53 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards | +14% PIT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:08 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Mark Barron), 5 yards | +13% SF +1.7 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:25 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +8% SF | SF: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 11:23 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +11% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 5:54 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +28% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 10:34 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Jason Verrett), 32 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet | +8% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 6:53 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe 49ers fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +45% PIT | SF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:36 | The Steelers fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +17% SF | PIT: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 2:53 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +14% PIT | PIT: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 2:08 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Mark Barron), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 126 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 | +13% SF | SF: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Joe Staley (SF T), out · 1.1 pts
- Sean Davis (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Vince Williams (PIT LB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 16% · 49ers 84%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 4
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 7.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 13% · 49ers 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · 
Steelers · 
49ers
More from Week 3 2019
- Titans at Jaguars JAX 20–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Falcons at Colts IND 27–24 · replay 69% for the winner
- Ravens at Chiefs KC 33–28 · replay 47% for the winner
- Bengals at Bills BUF 21–17 · replay 72% for the winner
- Broncos at Packers GB 27–16 · replay 57% for the winner
- Lions at Eagles DET 27–24 · replay 64% for the winner
- Dolphins at Cowboys DAL 31–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 30–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Raiders at Vikings MIN 34–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Panthers at Cardinals CAR 38–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Giants at Buccaneers NYG 32–31 · replay 17% for the winner
- Texans at Chargers HOU 27–20 · replay 44% for the winner
- Saints at Seahawks NO 33–27 · replay 69% for the winner
- Rams at Browns LA 20–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Bears at Washington CHI 31–15 · replay 55% for the winner