luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Cardinals, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Cardinals 38–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Panthers win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Cardinals: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:55 left): the Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 22 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Carolina Panthers 38
Arizona Cardinals 20

September 22, 2019 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −2.5

Luck index +11 Panthers about even · −11 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 9, Cardinals win 1.

  1. 1 CAR 40 ARI 10
  2. 2 CAR 41 ARI 17
  3. 3 CAR 26 ARI 7
  4. 4 CAR 37 ARI 21
  5. 5 CAR 30 ARI 16
  6. 6 CAR 30 ARI 20
  7. 7 CAR 24 ARI 16
  8. 8 CAR 33 ARI 27
  9. 9 CAR 20 ARI 17
  10. 10 CAR 19 ARI 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Cardinals

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

36 points apart for the Cardinals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained +0.63 +0.12 better by 0.51
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.17 +0.13 worse by 0.04
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.17 −0.01 better by 0.18
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.63 +0.13 worse by 0.50

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 89% of them, Cardinals 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+45.3%
Panthers by 9–1623.0%
Panthers by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation1.7%
Cardinals by 1–87.7%
Cardinals by 9–162.5%
Cardinals by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Panthers by 18, without the luck Panthers by 19.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Slye, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 3 for 35 yards, Cardinals 7 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:59 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Zach Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.1 pts
Q1 0:24 Horse Collar Tackle on the Cardinals (Chandler Jones), 15 yards +5% CAR +1.6 pts
Q2 4:24 Face Mask on the Panthers (Tre Boston), 15 yards +7% ARI +1.8 pts
Q3 15:00 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Panthers (Ross Cockrell), 15 yards +5% ARI +1.7 pts
Q3 14:43 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% CAR +1.4 pts
Q4 14:03 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Terrell Suggs), 3 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.5 pts
Q4 8:33 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trent Sherfield), 10 yards 0% CAR +0.9 pts
Q4 5:19 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (J.R. Sweezy), 4 yards 0% CAR +0.8 pts
Q4 4:45 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.8 pts
Q4 1:18 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Zach Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +1.0 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:55 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% ARI CAR: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:15 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:51 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% ARI ARI: Punt
4 Q2 4:24 Face Mask on the Panthers (Tre Boston), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 136 snaps before, position avg 1 per 465 +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
5 Q3 14:43 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:03 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q3 4:34 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
8 Q3 2:52 Z. Gonzalez made 47-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +5% ARI ARI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kawann Short (CAR DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Graham Gano (CAR K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 100% · Cardinals 0%

Final margin
Panthers by 18
Luck in points
1.5 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 19.5
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 89% · Cardinals 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Panthers · Cardinals

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